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  • US stocks to outperform 'cheap' European stocks
    Consensus said: Morgan Stanley overweight Europe, underweight US in best trades for 2013
    We said: Earnings matching or exceeding battened-down expectations could lift US equities a little further in coming weeks. From then on, the brighter spots in the US economy should help the market gain ground (not least against the Eurozone), justifying a richer US p/e relative to Europe ex UK. To reflect these prospects we upgrade the US equity market from -1 to 0. Euro Area stocks at -1. (LSR Asset Allocation 18th January 2013)
    Outcome: S&P500 and Dow Jones return 19%+, Euro Stoxx returns 5.34%
  • China's banks a disaster waiting to happen
    Consensus said: China's adjustment to lower growth rate to be smoothly managed
    We said: Worsening bank liquidity and mounting bad loans are set to undermine China's financial house of cards, leading to economic and financial turbulence over the next couple of years. Bank liquidity stress could turn out to be a key trigger in destabilising China's economy. (LSR View 28th February 2012)
    Outcome: Liquidity crunch shocks markets June 2013, Hang Seng down 8.78%, Shanghai Comp down 11.30%, GDP growth slows dramatically
  • Yen weakness to extend well into 2013
    Consensus said: Westpac forecast Yen strengthening to 79 vs. $ from December 2012 to December 2013.
    We said: Yen weakness can extend well into 2013 on small changes in Japanese investors' hedge ratios. With currency support from high real yields and the current account surplus already waning, we downgrade JPY:USD from 0 to -1. (LSR Quarterly Outlook 20th December 2012)
    Outcome: JPY down 18% vs. USD over next 7 months.
  • Gold to lose its lustre
    Consensus said: Goldman Sachs forecasts 3 month rate rise to $1,850 per ounce on 21st January
    We said: We downgrade gold to 0 from +1, mirroring our one-notch downgrade for US Treasuries. Still-negative real yields and any lingering euro sovereign concerns should support investor demand for gold, but political will to hold the euro together until after the German elections has reduced gold's safe haven appeal. (LSR Asset Allocation 18th January 2013)
    Outcome: Gold price falls 29% from $1,657 on 1st January 2013
  • Rate cut, not QE, to be ECB's next move
    Consensus said: Policy makers predict Euro Area returning to growth in H2
    We said: View changed to interest rates down from easier. We expect the ECB to cut interest rates before opting for QE. (LSR Quarterly Outlook 20th December 2012)
    Outcome: Rates cut to 0.5% on 2nd May 2013
  • Short Spanish and Italian stocks - especially banks!
    Consensus said: Ernst & Young see confidence in the broader Spanish financial system improving
    We said: Equities have always looked like the weak link in the Eurozone 'positive contagion' story supporting markets. Weak corporate profitability and rising NPLs are an additional headache for Spanish and Italian banks (-2), whose fates are still caught up with their sovereigns (policymakers having failed to take the opportunity to break the link between the two). (Equity Strategy Research Update 26th February 2013)
    Outcome: Nominal return on Spanish banks down 11.7% YTD, Italian banks down 7.8% YTD
  • Brazilian easing cycle over, tightening to surprise in 2013
    Consensus said: End-2013 expectations for 7.25% persist until January 2013
    We said: The central bank is trying its hand at Fed-style 'low for long' rhetoric talking of stable rates for a 'sufficiently long period' in the post-meeting statement. This may turn out to be wishful thinking. Committing to keep the Selic rate at current levels for a prolonged period of time is not credible and interest rate hikes still look likely in 2013. (LSR Daily Note 11th October 2012)
    Outcome: Rate up from 7.25% to 8.5% by 10th July COPOM meeting
  • Austerity ensures Spain will miss deficit targets
    Consensus said: Austerity measures imposed to protect creditors interests
    We said: Rapid fiscal retrenchment is not simply hammering the economy, and with it market hopes that private sector solvency can be resolved by solid output growth. It is also having little apparent impact on the government's fiscal position. Additional spending cuts and the recently enhanced VAT hike should lower the deficit somewhat in H2, but not enough to get close to the 7.4%, let alone mandated target. (LSR Daily Note 2nd October 2012)
    Outcome: 2012 deficit expands to 10%, Q1 GDP falls 0.5%, speculation of downgrade to junk
  • Equity markets to peak early in 2012
    Consensus said: AAII investor sentiment survey : 48% bullish, 33% neutral, 19% bearish
    We said: Wall Street pundits whistling Dixie…Double negative for stocks as spring approaches. Not only will activity be weakening – and profits with it - but the monetary growth that has been buoyed recently by the temporary surge of cap-ex is likely to subside, taking away the flush of liquidity that is a current major factor supporting stock prices. (Asset Allocation: Americas 3rd January 2012)
    Outcome: S&P500 peak in 2012 to date is 1,422 on 2nd April
  • Chinese hard landing in Year of the Dragon
    Consensus said: China to ‘soft land’ with GDP growth of 8-9% in 2012
    We said: China’s miraculous growth era is over. China’s growth downswing is set to intensify. Quarterly annualised real GDP growth could well slow to 5% by the middle of the year, though it is unlikely that the official data will show such a slowdown. (LSR Special Report 25th January 2012)
    Outcome: Growth down to 6% annualised by April, Bank of China cuts rates 50bps 7th June
  • Commodity prices to be hit by global slowdown
    Consensus said: 13th Jan - Goldman Sachs raises 12 month forecast on WTI to $123.50 per barrel
    We said: Bears to maul oil in 2012-2013. Economic trends suggest both an immediate cyclical downswing in crude prices in 2012, and a high likelihood that the medium-term uptrend since December 1998 will be reversed. (LSR View 9th December 2011)
    Outcome: WTI falls from $99pb on 1st Jan to $80pb by 21st June
  • Philippines the best bet in ASEAN
    Consensus said: EMs weak and growth in Philippines 'surprisingly strong'
    We said: We remain structurally positive on the Philippines given its relatively low exposure to external headwinds - either via trade, commodities trade, or funding channels. Additionally, improved macro fundamentals have led to a wider policy bandwidth and potentially a virtuous growth cycle. (Daily Note 16th July 2012) (LSR Daily Note 16th July 2012)
    Outcome: PSEi up 20% in 12 months, up 10% in 2013 to date
  • US equities to peak in the summer
    Consensus said: AAII investor sentiment survey: 46% bullish, 29% neutral, 25% bearish
    We said: “We downgrade US equities from positive to neutral. Equity markets may struggle from the Summer on as liquidity is also squeezed. Stocks may have a little juice left in them, but are likely to top out in the summer”. (Asset Allocation: Europe 1st March 2011)
    Outcome: 2011H1 S&P500 range trades 1250-1350. July 22nd – August 8th market falls 17% and ends flat for full calendar year.
  • € crisis to rapidly deteriorate
    Consensus said: Greece an isolated case - € to ‘muddle through’
    We said: “Severe deflation in Club Med, probably accompanied by effective default in Greece, and more likely than not, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, will mean prolonged and major subsidy and credit support for those economies”. (LSR View 26th January 2011)
    Outcome: 10 Year govt spreads in € nations all widen vs. bund in 2011. France widens +0.94, Greece +22.50, Ireland +0.45, Italy +3.33, Portugal +7.87, Spain +0.76.
  • Chinese inflation out of control, domestic demand to be hammered
    Consensus said: Chinese economy to soft-land (growth 9-10%)
    We said: “China’s overheated economy risks a slump. Chinese policy makers have to slam on the brakes if they want to prevent accelerating inflation”. (LSR View 26th January 2011)
    Outcome: GDP growth slows through 2011. Q42011 GDP slowest for 2.5 years, Q12012 GDP slowest for 3 years. Shanghai Composite Index down 20%.
  • US growth to accelerate H2 due to cap-ex spending
    Consensus said: Consensus forecasts for end-2011 GDP slide away: Q1 3.2%, Q2 2.5%, Q3 1.6%, Q4 1.7%.
    We said: “100% first-year depreciation…creates an unprecedented incentive to bring business capital spending forward from 2012 into 2011. This intensifies hugely the likely upswing in GDP at end-2011”. (Asset Allocation: Americas 1st April 2011)
    Outcome: 2011Q1 GDP 0.4%, 2011Q2 GDP 1.3%, 2011Q3 GDP 1.8% , 2011Q4 GDP 2.8%
  • India must raise rates to battle inflation – stocks will suffer
    Consensus said: Sensex to rise 20% to 23,350 in 2011
    We said: “With growth slowing, inflation rising and further monetary tightening almost certain…stocks could fall to 16,000”. (LSR Daily Note 28th February 2011)
    Outcome: Sensex falls 25% in 2011 to finish the year at 15,175
  • Over-tightening, not overheating threatens Brazil
    Consensus said: Markets priced in 80bps tightening May 2011 – Jan 2012
    We said: “Brazil’s bias towards ultra-tight monetary policy could prove highly damaging. Calls for higher rates, capital controls and a weaker currency are misplaced”. (LSR Daily Note 9th May 2011)
    Outcome: Interest rates up 50bps then rapidly ‘surprise’ cut back by 50bps
  • UK house prices to stagnate
    Consensus said: Views range from -10% upwards with average -5%
    We said: “UK house prices are to be little changed this year”. Our model forecasts house price inflation of -0.8%. (LSR Quarterly Economic Forecast 4th February 2011)
    Outcome: UK house prices fell -0.9%
  • Oil price to begin secular fall
    Consensus said: JP Morgan upgrades forecast to $109.5/bbl
    We said: “Market attention has returned to Libya and the Gulf, pushing oil prices back towards their peaks. High prices incorporate both supply concerns and a Saudi Arabia risk premium. Absent the disruption of Gulf oil supplies, prices should ease back”. (LSR Daily Note 22nd March 2011)
    Outcome: WTI then $104/bbl, fell to $86/bbl in 6 months
  • € crisis continues to worsen - divergence to be extreme
    Consensus said: Rating agencies complacent, spreads did not reflect crisis until April 2010
    We said: 2010 will bring no let-up for divergent EMU bond ratings. The monetary union was propogated in the late 1990s as a weapon to solidify peace in Europe. As we said at the time, it is more likely to ensure at least unnecessary grief and discord quite possibly something a good deal worse. The first place to look for the financial effects of all this will be in the government bond markets - but it could well become increasingly visible on the streets as well. (LSR Daily Note 5th January 2010)
    Outcome: € area continues to suffer economic turmoil, periphery vs core spreads widen dramatically
  • Chinese growth set for a sharp correction
    Consensus said: China set for a ‘soft landing’
    We said: At some point over the next four quarters China’s expansion is highly likely to be cut short, restrained by its cyclical barriers amid a sizable relapse of global growth. The longer the economy continues to boom and inflation is left unchecked, the worse the necessary growth correction is set to be. (LSR View 19th July 2010)
    Outcome: Chinese domestic demand slowed sharply in H1 2011 under the impact of monetary tightening and administrative policy measures from late 2010 onwards
  • US long bond yield to be well down over 12 months
    Consensus said: 1y forwards pricing 10 year yield at 3.6% Dec-10-Dec-11
    We said: US growth to stay below trend. The short term is seriously threatened by too much Q3 inventory building. This is highly likely to fall back, making a negative contribution to near-term GDP growth, aggravated by QE2’s higher food and energy prices. (LSR Daily Note 3rd December 2010)
    Outcome: US growth at 1.9% in Q1, likely 1.8% in Q2, 10-year treasury yield down to 2.48 in August 2011
  • Indian inflation out of control, RBI behind the curve
    Consensus said: Market expectation was for RBI to raise policy repo rate by 225bps and CRR by 75bps
    We said: India needs Volckers policy – assertive monetary tightening needed to control inflation (LSR Daily Note 14th October 2009)
    Outcome: Repo rate up 325bps and CRR up 100bps. More is still needed.
  • Oil prices may remain bubbly while QE2 is on the cards
    Consensus said: Consensus Economics survey shows 2.3% rise from Oct 2010 spot – Sep 2011
    We said: The most direct and visible effect of QE is likely to be on asset prices. At least some will rebalance their portfolios. This portfolio rebalancing could present a substantial upside to commodities. (LSR Daily Note 4th October 2010)
    Outcome: Oil prices then $81.4/bbl (WTI), $99/bbl in August 2011
  • ECB won’t raise rates in 2010
    Consensus said: Markets began the year pricing in 110bps of tightening in 2010, by May markets were pricing 40bps tightening in the next 12 months.
    We said: There is not the slightest possibility of any sustained rise in inflation in the euro area in 2010, nor in 2010. ECB won’t raise rates in 2010. (LSR Daily Note 18th May 2010)
    Outcome: ECB left interest rates unchanged in 2010, hiked in April 2011
  • Huge upside potential in US equity markets
    Consensus said: Merrill Lynch survey of portfolio managers revealed pessimism at “near record highs”
    We said: “Markets unlikely to get much cheaper, upside huge…With short-run interest rates at negligible levels, monetary reflation should drive investors into the stock market quite soon” (LSR Daily Note 3rd March 2009)
    Outcome: S&P rallies 58% from March to December, developed stock markets all grow strongly
  • Double digit inflation to hit India
    Consensus said: Goldman Sachs - "Inflation is on a downward trajectory and we expect it to continue to fall sharply going into next year." (December 2008)
    We said: “With grossly loose monetary policy and grotesquely loose fiscal policy, India now risks a repeat of the UK’s experience in the 1970s. India has an inflation problem” (LSR Daily Note 8th December 2008)
    Outcome: Indian CPI hit 10% in February 2009 and continued to rise to 16% by year end
  • Bank of England will need more QE
    Consensus said: Quantitative easing to be put ‘on hold’, policy to be tighter
    We said: Bank of England to expand gilt purchases. M4 data open door for QE expansion (UK Bulletin 4th August 2009)
    Outcome: BoE boosts QE by £50bn on 8th August 2009
  • UK plc to recover quicker than expected
    Consensus said: Fall of 3% real GDP in 2009, 0.5% expansion in 2010
    We said: Current consensus forecasts imply a contraction of 3% in real GDP this year, followed by a 0.5% expansion next. By contrast, our own projections remain less pessimistic than this. Not only has the UK business sector adjusted swiftly to the changing economic landscape but there is a very significant degree of monetary easing working its way through the economy (UK Bulletin 19th March 2009)
    Outcome: UK stock market bottomed in March 2009, but the economy did not move out of recession until the last quarter, as LSR predicted.
  • US house prices set for long-term falls
    Consensus said: Rate of decline to slow, lower interest rates to support house prices by mid-2009
    We said: Before the US economy can recover, household debt must return to manageable levels. Once there, US households are unlikely to go on another borrowing and spending spree.…it will take much more than a decade for prices to regain their former peak (LSR View 8th December 2008)
    Outcome: housing market still in doldrums by mid 2011, prices at best flat and down 20-30% from their peak (depending on the measure)
  • Timing the US stock market recovery
    Consensus said: Bearish view dominated private investor sentiment
    We said: Our US equity recommendation was negative in August 2008, turned neutral in September and positive in October 2008. (Asset Allocation publications 1st August 2008, 1st October 2008, 5th November 2008)
    Outcome: S&P500 rose by 13% over period November 2008-October 2009
  • US monetary policy counterproductive - will raise inflation and slow growth
    Consensus said: Fed needs to boost private sector credit growth to support the economy
    We said: Private sector debt capacity is nil. Fed policy will reduce growth as inflation will eat into real incomes, and confidence worsening the economic downswing and missing the Fed’s growth goal (LSR View 28th May 2008)
    Outcome: Inflation is elevated; credit growth has been weak over past years
  • Oil price driven too high by speculation - will peak and fall rapidly
    Consensus said: Goldman Sachs predict oil price of $200pb, talk of "peak oil" dominates
    We said: The demand story favouring high oil prices is - cyclically - just that: a story. If and when the speculators decide the game is up, the game could be fun! (LSR Daily Note 9th May 2008)
    Outcome: WTI peaked at $147pb in July 2008 and fell to $35pb in Q1 2009
  • The bubble is about to burst
    Consensus said: IMF and others see stable growth or ‘soft landing’
    We said: The May to June 2006 market crunch was a dress rehearsal for liquidity implosion. Make no mistake; the world is on the cusp. This looks and feels like a bubble. In the past, bubbles have always burst. (LSR View 19th January 2007)
    Outcome: The Global Financial Crisis
  • Banking crisis imminent
    Consensus said: Nothing. Wall Street entirely silent re: subprime, CDS and liquidity issues
    We said: Losses from the subprime mortgage markets will initiate the rebalancing of the Eurasian savings glut, at least for a while. Further losses due to the resulting global slowdown will turn risk seeking into risk avoidance. Both will drain the liquidity central banks inject and end the recent series of asset booms. (LSR View 29th March 2007)
    Outcome: Subprime mortgages and their derivatives trigger financial chaos
  • Fed funds rate staying high
    Consensus said: Rate cuts priced in for early 2007
    We said: Inflationary pressure means Fed will be unable to cut until Q3 2007 earliest
    Outcome: Fed funds rate stayed at 5.25% until October 2007
  • Bank of England will not cut rates and will hike next
    Consensus said: August 2005 rate cut began an easing cycle.
    We said: Growth and inflation will be higher than the MPC expects, next rate move up (UK Bulletin 17th January 2006)
    Outcome: Rates flat at 4.5% until upward move in August 2006
  • Indian stock market offering value
    Consensus said: May 2006 bloodbath the beginning of a major correction
    We said: Strong fundamentals to take markets higher after post-May falls
    Outcome: Sensex up 56% to all-time peak by December 2006
  • UK house prices to continue steady growth
    Consensus said: Prices overvalued and minimal growth at best in prospect
    We said: House prices will grow steadily to reach 10% in 2006
    Outcome: Halifax price index rose 9.9% in the year
  • Sell US bonds short-term
    Consensus said: Buy bonds as shorts rushed for cover
    We said: Treasury market is overbought. Bull phase temporarily over. (LSR Daily Note 31st October 2005)
    Outcome: 10-year Treasury yields backed up over 40bps
  • UK house prices
    Consensus said: house prices overvalued by up to 30%-40%.
    We said: Interest rates of 4¾% will not lead to a house price crash: expect a stable market. "A crash in the housing market remains a distant prospect, with conditions simply not in place for a drastic fall in house prices". (LSR Quarterly Economic Forecast 2nd March 2005)
    Outcome: House price inflation slowed to 3% and started to accelerate.
  • Euroland
    Consensus said: Euroland growth remains weak, the ECB should cut interest rates
    We said: Euroland growth will be above-trend in 2004, slowing to trend in 2005. There will be no interest rate cuts. (LSR Daily Note 12th August 2004)
    Outcome: Euroland growth was 1.7% in 2004 (trend = 1.5%), but slowed in Q2 2005. Interest rates remain unchanged in the year to date.
  • Korea
    Consensus said: Korean household spending to recover strongly in 2004
    We said: Korean growth remains dependent on exports performance. Domestic demand, in particular household spending growth will not recover until 2005 and is unlikely to drive growth before 2006. (LSR Daily Note 1st September 2004)
    Outcome: Household spending average quarterly growth in 2004: 0.1% vs 2.3% for exports
  • Asian Tigers
    Consensus said: Strong growth for Asian tigers in 2004 and 2005
    We said: Once export growth cools in H2 2004 and following quarters, output growth will slow down abruptly. Indonesia performance will remain countercyclical to the rest of Asia (LSR Daily Note 5th May 2004)
    Outcome: Q1 GDP growth yoy halved in Singapore, Taiwan and Korea and slowed in Thailand. Indonesian growth accelerated from late 2004.
  • Eurasian savings glut to drive US economy into hard landing
    Consensus said: US debt capacity on housing unconstrained
    We said: Persistent Eurasian surpluses are crucial in the trashing of US business balance sheets with too much capacity and debt in 1998-2000; and trashing household balance sheets with excessive debt now - with a hard landing for the economy likely to result in 2005-2006. (Monthly Review 30th September 2004)
    Outcome: US slowdown in 2006 leads to sub-prime mortgage crisis
  • UK housing market
    Consensus said: A slowdown from the current inflation rate of 15%.
    We said: Current reading suggests that house price inflation could rise back up towards 20% again by the summer.
    Outcome: House price inflation rose to 19% in May.The momentum in the housing market has taken many, including the Bank of England, by surprise.
  • US debt markets
    Consensus said: US long rates moving higher
    We said: US bonds set to rally.
    Outcome: The ten year US treasury rallied over 75 basis points
  • Buy Japanese stocks, economy on the turn
    Consensus said: Deflation and bad bank debts will hold down equities
    We said: Japanese stocks are undervalued (Monthly Review – April 2003)
    Outcome: Nikkei rose 16.8% in 2003
  • Japan turnaround
    Consensus said: Japan will continue to be crippled by deflation.The bad bank loan situation means Japanese stocks are not worth touching.
    We said: Japan is turning. Buy Japanese equities.
    Outcome: Nikkei has increased 50% since the lows of 2003.
  • UK shares recovery
    Consensus said: Markets extremely nervous and pessimistic.
    We said: Valuations are now fair, even cheap - expect a bounce-back.
    Outcome: FTAS rose 11% in 12 months.
  • US Treasuries to outperform US stocks
    Consensus said: US stock market to begin to rebound from two years of falls since 2000
    We said: Stocks to perform badly again. There is a powerful case for US Treasuries. Corporate bonds a better bet than stocks.
    Outcome: US Treasuries outperform corporate bonds, which outperform stocks
  • China to become a global economic engine
    Consensus said: China unlikely to take the global economy forward
    We said: Medium-term growth prospects for China very good. Emerging Eurasia to dominate world by 2025. (Monthly Review – November 2002)
    Outcome: In the next decade China becomes the most important country as % of global GDP growth
  • Commodity Prices
    Consensus said: Rising commodity prices unlikely to continue
    We said: At least in the medium term China will fuel domestic demand growth, attempting to counter the global economic cycle. This will invariably have an upward effect on commodity prices (Daily Note 19th September 2002)
    Outcome: Commodity prices continued their ascent
  • US stocks hamstrung after end of bubble
    Consensus said: Stocks to recover from 2000 falls
    We said: Bonds, which are discounting 6% ongoing from mid-2002, should do well and stocks badly. (Monthly International Review - December 2001)
    Outcome: Bonds deliver superior returns
  • Germany at risk of recession
    Consensus said: German GDP to total 2% in 2001
    We said: A recession this year cannot be excluded. The budget deficit will almost certainly over shoot the 1.5% target. Beware a German recession. (Daily Note – 2nd May 2001)
    Outcome: German economic shrank H2 2001 and the budget deficit exceeded 1.5% target
  • US bonds preferred
    Consensus said: Stocks to do well after a fall this year.
    We said: Falling prices and a feeble US recovery means bonds will outperform stocks in 2002.
    Outcome: Bonds outperformed stocks in 2002.
  • UK equities
    Consensus said: UK stock market would rebound after the disastrous falls in 2000.
    We said: Equities would perform poorly for the second year in a row.Commercial property and cash represented the safest investment vehicles.
    Outcome: Another dire year for stock markets. FTSE-100 fell a further 16%. Commercial property was the best-performing asset class with cash a second.
  • US economy
    Consensus said: US to have a 'soft landing'. Corporate profits to rise gently.
    We said: Hard landing for US economy, sharp fall in corporate profits 2001-2002, shares to plummet.
    Outcome: US in recession from March, markets fall 22% in year to Q3 2001.
  • Telco 3G licences
    Consensus said: Telecommunications companies were right to pay enormous fees for 3G licences.
    We said: The Telcos were overvalued, crazy to pay such fees, and that they would run into financing difficulties in the future.
    Outcome: Continued decline in telecoms share prices in wake of bursting of high-tech bubble; significant problems at the major companies, including placing their enormous bond issues in the market.
  • UK economy
    Consensus said: UK recession in 1999.
    We said: 1.5% GDP growth in 1999 (the highest forecast out of 43).
    Outcome: 2.1% GDP growth.
  • US inflation
    Consensus said: 2.2% US inflation in one year's time.
    We said: 3% and rising.
    Outcome: 3% and rising.
  • Japan
    Consensus said: Fiscal policy can save Japan from recession.
    We said: Japanese fiscal policy has run its course.
    Outcome: Deepening recession.
  • Asian markets
    Consensus said: Emerging Asia will give good returns.
    We said: Asia will have a crisis.
    Outcome: The Asian crisis.
  • US economy
    Consensus said: US economy will slow.
    We said: The strong economy and bull market will continue.
    Outcome: Strong US growth.
  • UK base rates
    Consensus said: UK base rates will rise from 6% to 8%.
    We said: Base rates will rise only slightly, to 6.5%.
    Outcome: Base rates rose to 6.5% in 1995, then fell in 1996. Many Lombard Street Research clients made 250 ticks on short sterling.
  • German economy
    Consensus said: Germany will be the European locomotive.
    We said: German GDP will contract.
    Outcome: German GDP contracted.
  • UK inflation
    Consensus said: Rising inflation (to 4.2%).
    We said: Falling inflation (3.5%) and strong growth.
    Outcome: The five years from Q2 1992 saw above-trend growth, and inflation was lower in1997 than in late 1992.
  • Japan
    Consensus said: A model economy.
    We said: A decade of economic collapse.
    Outcome: Japan experienced a decade of economic collapse.
  • UK economy
    Consensus said: UK economy would experience growth.
    We said: Recession.
    Outcome: GDP was 1.7% lower in Q4 1990.
2015 Seminar Dates
*Dates subject to revision, according to movements in markets.