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We provide independent macroeconomic forecasting and analysis to asset managers, banks and global corporations around the world. For almost twenty years we have helped institutions improve their investment thinking, their returns and their management of risk.

The Monetary Merry-Go-Round: The Transcript

Our latest Witness Symposium took place on November 17th. Our key contributors, Paul Volcker, Jacques de Larosiere and Lord Lawson were supported by a host of expert commentators.

A transcript is being prepared of the day's events. For further information please click here.

06 Jan 09 AA: Americas America's triple whammy upside With minor tweaks we maintain our positive stance on global equities. Our enthusiasm for Asian equities has been tempered by the recent sharp deterioration in their export outlook. Conversely Canadian equities now look attractive as commodity and energy prices stabilise in the near term. So we have a similar view across equity markets – they are cheap and there is a good chance of a rally over the next 12 months, triggered perhaps by positive news on the US economy. On Government bonds the tension between weak economic fundamentals and increased supply persists. In the US 10-year yields at 2.5% look too low, especially with the Fed engaged in quantitative easing. We also remain underweight JGBs. In the UK and euro-zone we retain a neutral stance as the disinflationary environment is likely to outweigh the effects of relatively modest fiscal packages. Late last year financial panic pushed corporate and emerging market bond spreads up sharply, although they have since retreated a little. Junk spreads are likely to narrow further this year as there is some easing in credit markets. But emerging market bond spreads may stay relatively high as the global economy remains weak. We continue to prefer Brazilian over Canadian and Mexican equities.

06 Jan 09 UK Bulletin UK pays for Fed mistakes WE SUGGEST: Bank Rate to be cut further in Q1 SUMMARY: The ongoing structural adjustment in the UK economy has been exacerba... 06 Jan 09 GIO Update Taking air out of the bond bubble Stabilizing consumer data in some economies has helped risk assets (equities, commodities and corporate bonds), taken a littl... 05 Jan 09 UK Bulletin A new year, same old problems WE SUGGEST: Ongoing recession in H1 2009 SUMMARY: The current downturn in UK economic activity has been worsened by a severe...