The conflicts underpinning global markets

New York - Friday January 15th 2010

Penn Club, 30 W 44th St, New York 10036

This is a morning seminar followed by lunch and is open to premium subscribers of Lombard Street Research. Non-clients are welcome to attend for a fee. To reserve a place or to make an enquiry please contact Jacqueline Rolandelli, jr@lombardstreetresearch.com.

Programme

09.15 a.m.    Registration and Coffee

10.00 a.m.    Welcome from Managing Director, Peter Allen

10.05 a.m.    Charles Dumas : China's last great bubble - globalised Japan next

10.45 a.m.    Leigh Skene: We can't borrow our way out of the credit crunch

11.30 a. m.   Break

11.40 a.m.    Stefano di Domizio: Lombard Street Research's bond/swap/money market analysis

12.00 noon   Questions to the panel

12.15 p.m.    Lunch

Timings are approximate

About the speakers

Charles Dumas is Chairman of the Company and our Chief Economist. He has written two books on China and a third one is in progress. He is widely regarded as being the first to recognise the Asian savings glut which led to the 2008 global credit crisis.

Leigh Skene is an Associate of Lombard Street Research and contributes to our Global Investment Opportunities team. As early as March 2007 he identified key factors at the root of the global credit crisis, predicting the bursting of the bubble and the trillions of dollars of losses as a result. He has recently published The Impoverishment of Nations, prescribing a radically different solution to the challenges created by this crisis.

Stefano Di Domizio is Senior Strategist with our Global Investment Opportunities team and has recently joined us from JP Morgan where he was an interest rate derivatives specialist. Through combining fundamental, relative value and market analysis, his strategy aims at providing ideas for tactical positioning in interest rate markets.

Programme Content

Charles Dumas - China's last great bubble - globalised Japan next

• Big China credit splurge and huge rebound, plus yuan peg/devaluation =>  inflation and tightening => removes only big global source of credit growth
• US: never-ending increase in debt/income ratios – only known route to growth – growth at the mercy of willingness to run persistent huge deficits
• Europe: Chinese export surge + US import substitution squeezes Europe
• After synchronised global crash and partial rebound, risk assets to diverge
• Weak links to be tested – stress could spread, eg, to UK

Leigh Skene - We can't buy our way out of the credit crunch

• The post war miracle ended in 2000
• The factors that will keep US growth low in the future
• Why the big increase in debt has given no discernable return
• Why sustained inflation from
1) a wage/price spiral,
2) commodity prices and/or
3) QE is impossible.
• Why government is the basic problem and so the current faith in government being the solution is bound to be disappointed

Stefano Di Domizio - LSR's  bond/swaps/money market service

• Introduction of Global Investment Opportunities and its team
• Intra-EMU yield spread wideners: a cheap option on the crisis striking back?
• Some examples of recent fixed-income trades