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Goldilocks is back but how long until the bears return?
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Session 1: Global growth locomotives and shifting Fed, ECB and BoE policy
· Cyclical reflation and early stage inflation vs. structural deflation. How will central banks respond?
· Can QT be managed smoothly and coherently?
· What will be the intended or unintended effects on global growth?
· How will these shifts reshape global financial flows? Risks to USD liquidity?
· How will FX, bond and equity markets respond? Where are the key opportunities and risks?
· Will Trump, North Korea or other political risks derail the story?
Panellists: Steven Blitz, Ollie Brennan, Charles Dumas and Dario Perkins
Moderator: Andrea Cicione
Session 2: Europe faces hottest growth and highest political risk
· Germany the main locomotive in a bullish growth story for the region…but for how long?
· Timing and sizing the ECB taper and exit strategy
· Italy the major political and economic risk to the recovery and future of the euro
· How to position for the opportunities and hedge for the risks?
Panellists: Charles Dumas, Christopher Granville, and Ken Wattret
Moderator: Nick Bourne
Session 3: China’s slower, more stable growth and Goldilocks visits Emerging Markets
· Fears of a China debt blow up are overdone. Growth/debt trade-off is becoming more stable. No crisis in sight as leadership affirms power at Communist Party Congress, but housing risk must not be ignored.
· Effects of China and the global environment on interlinked EMs.
· Where might political risk hit investors hardest? Brazil? Mexico? GCC?
· Discriminant selection will be the key to EM outperformance. Where are the opporunities in EM?
Panellists: Larry Brainard, Jonathan Fenby, Elizabeth Johnson, Bo Zhuang
Moderator: Martin Shenfield