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• Data suggest the economy was in a healthy state before the EU referendum
• Survey indicators have deteriorated but, as yet, not dramatically
• Counter-cyclical fiscal policy and weak sterling will help...
• EA money growth consistent with above-trend growth
• Adjusted credit growth accelerates as non-financial firms shrug off Brexit vote
• Money and credit growth brisk in France and Germany while Spain and...
• Profits and EBITDA have been falling since 2014 Q3 as a share of GDP
• The long slide in companies’ labour costs that ended in 2013 has reversed
• Slumping productivity growth means real wages are out...
• Policy efforts to reduce housing inventories have achieved some success
• But over-building in the old industrial regions remains serious
• Policymakers’ focus now shifts to bursting bubbles in top ti...
• Hikes do not mean higher 10y yields; the correlation has structurally declined
• US inflation should accelerate in 2017, but will probably moderate near term
• Gilts on the other hand are overbought given the inflationary...
Euro area equities remain unloved and probably underowned. To some extent this is understandable. The market has only just gone through the Brexit shock – from which, truth be told, it has recovered swiftly – but potentially big...
• Volatility is low for now but political risks will increase in coming months
• A perfect storm of Italian, French and German key votes is brewing
• Unless it comes ashore early, EA stocks can outperform US in the near term...
• A possible shift of emphasis to fiscal stimulus is a major risk to core bonds
• It worsens the demand-supply balance even in the absence of inflation
• Joint monetary-fiscal stimulus can impair bonds’ recession-hedgi...