Macro Economic Research
28
Jul
2016
Fed signals and noise


• FOMC refuses to send a clear signal about its September meeting  
• Clear divisions on the committee complicate forward guidance  
• Doves will need to see data improve further to accept rate hike Dario Perk...

LSR Daily Note
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27
Jul
2016
China’s capacity reduction in train, but sl...


• Recent policy announcements suggest progress towards cutting capacity  
• But the targeted reductions in steel production appear insufficient  
• Policymakers still hope to create ever-bigger steel-exporting SO...

LSR Daily Note
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26
Jul
2016
Russian roulette


• EM investors emboldened by a cautious Fed and dormant China risks  
• Russian asset outperformance should have more to run  
• But further upside hinges on a soft dollar and another leg up in crude  
...

LSR Daily Note
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25
Jul
2016
EA liquidity – easier than it seems?


• Monetary and credit conditions continue to improve  
• Overall liquidity may be easier still  
• These indicators point to strong EA growth in the next 12 months  
Shweta Singh

LSR Daily Note
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Investment Strategy
27
Jul
2016
The Fed unlikely to help the dollar much


• The FOMC’s balancing acts unlikely to help the dollar materially
• The resulting financial easing will help risk assets with cheap valuations
• We recommend catch-up trades that will benefit from a soft dollar
...

LSR Macro Strategy
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20
Jul
2016
EM carry: the rally and the risks


• EM carry is unlikely to be vulnerable to isolated risks such as Turkish politics
• Global risk mitigation is a bigger driver, as both China and the dollar stabilise
• Inflation resurgence and sustained volatility...

LSR Macro Strategy
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15
Jul
2016
The Brexit risk premium


• The market reaction to Brexit has been remarkably composed
• But it would be wrong to dismiss the vote as a non-event
• European assets warrant a higher risk premium as a result
• The rebound in equities owes a lot to...

LSR Asset Allocation
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13
Jul
2016
Falling yields: losers & winners


• Stubborn term-premium declines have created both losers and winners
• Conventional wisdom on portfolio diversification may be challenged
• But yield advantage will attract flows till inflation resurfaces decisively
...

LSR Macro Strategy
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