Macro Economic Research
27
Apr
2015
Japan feels cold Chinese March breath


• China’s locomotive effect equals America’s and is threatened by overvaluation  
• Japan’s six-month export-led recovery is in danger of lapsing, and QE accelerates  
• Without a quick US consu...

LSR Daily Note
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24
Apr
2015
Yellen vs. Greenspan


• Janet Yellen says she has learnt from Alan Greenspan’s mistakes  
• Despite her good intentions, implementing the lessons may be difficult  
• Now, as in the mid-2000s, the Fed isn’t in total contro...

LSR Daily Note
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23
Apr
2015
Soft patch

The US economy has slowed so far in 2015, repeating a familiar pause-unpause pattern during this cycle. This time bad weather, dollar strength and the oil-price collapse have hurt demand. But we still see underlying strength and expect the...

LSR Macro Picture
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23
Apr
2015
India’s corporate headaches


• India remains our preferred EM but it has no magic wand to kick-start growth  
• Stretched corporate balance sheet hindering investment  
• Recovery is underway and will strengthen, but with a lag  
...

LSR Daily Note
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Investment Strategy
27
Apr
2015
May 2015

US Q4 2014 earnings have suffered from a sharp rise in the dollar in the preceding two quarters, which depressed non-USD revenues. Q1 2015 saw an even larger jump in the dollar but, despite this, the earnings season has had a much better st...

LSR Chartbook
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22
Apr
2015
Shifting correlations

US stock-FX correlation is now positive in contrast with the euro zone where the correlation has turned negative a la Japan. Both historical shifts reflect the divergent policy environments. Negative equity-FX correlations are likely to pre...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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17
Apr
2015
The end of “deleveraging”

Bond returns were surprisingly strong in Q1, considering the low level of yields they started the year at. The German curve is now negative up to 9-year maturities, and while other G4 bond markets offer higher yields, value is quickly vanis...

LSR Asset Allocation
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15
Apr
2015
Add to AUD shorts

As China slowdown continues unabated, the case for staying short AUD remains clear, especially given domestic Oz disinflation. We see further rate cuts from RBA and add a short AUD/CAD trade to our portfolio. Given our neutral oil price out...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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