Macro Economic Research
30
Jun
2016
Australia’s election and the twin deficits


• Electoral battle shaping up to be the closest in years  
• Whoever wins will need to grapple with an incipient twin deficit problem  
• The economy’s resilience to adverse shocks is diminishing Konstan...

LSR Daily Note
Download
29
Jun
2016
Rising yen helps Japan’s growth, despite BoJ


• The huge leap in the yen has reduced both competitiveness and profit margins  
• But real household incomes are finally rising, as deflation returns  
• Mr Kuroda’s QE, now 20% of GDP, has yet to check th...

LSR Daily Note
Download
28
Jun
2016
A European political jolt


• Political risk premia rising sharply in the euro area  
• Heightened uncertainty threatens the rebalancing and recovery now under way  
• The euro zone remains a distinctly non-optimal currency area   #@...

LSR Daily Note
Download
27
Jun
2016
Brex-it’s the economy, stupid!


• Slumping EA domestic demand hurt UK exports, boosted the pound artificially  
• Can Scotland afford UK exit? – England to rebalance in favour of the north  
• Mass immigration has worsened inequality, but...

LSR Daily Note
Download
Investment Strategy
29
Jun
2016
After the Leave vote


• There is little evidence of either liquidity stresses or contagion so far
• Residual downside for GBP, EA stocks probably less than pre-vote forecasts
• The outlook for EM carry in particular may have actually brightened f...

LSR Macro Strategy
Download
28
Jun
2016
July 2016

Post-Brexit, real trade-weighted sterling has already fallen around 15% relative to long-term trends. While a further decline cannot be ruled out, the cheap levels imply that the downside may be more limited than many market observers sugge...

LSR Strategy Chartbook
Download
22
Jun
2016
What if we Remain?


• A Remain win will bring us back to the mundane issue of fundamentals
• We still see a constructive case for global carry led by high-beta EM
• European stocks should finally begin to turn in a decent performance too
...

LSR Macro Strategy
Download
17
Jun
2016
Brexit strategy


• Brexit is a short-term risk with potential long-term consequences
• We remain positioned for ‘Bremain’ but our conviction is lower
• Long Gilts, short European stocks are cost-effective Brexit hedges
• Sof...

LSR Asset Allocation
Download
LSR App LSR Services