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• Electoral battle shaping up to be the closest in years
• Whoever wins will need to grapple with an incipient twin deficit problem
• The economy’s resilience to adverse shocks is diminishing Konstan...
• The huge leap in the yen has reduced both competitiveness and profit margins
• But real household incomes are finally rising, as deflation returns
• Mr Kuroda’s QE, now 20% of GDP, has yet to check th...
• Political risk premia rising sharply in the euro area
• Heightened uncertainty threatens the rebalancing and recovery now under way
• The euro zone remains a distinctly non-optimal currency area #@...
• Slumping EA domestic demand hurt UK exports, boosted the pound artificially
• Can Scotland afford UK exit? – England to rebalance in favour of the north
• Mass immigration has worsened inequality, but...
• There is little evidence of either liquidity stresses or contagion so far
• Residual downside for GBP, EA stocks probably less than pre-vote forecasts
• The outlook for EM carry in particular may have actually brightened f...
Post-Brexit, real trade-weighted sterling has already fallen around 15% relative to long-term trends. While a further decline cannot be ruled out, the cheap levels imply that the downside may be more limited than many market observers sugge...
• A Remain win will bring us back to the mundane issue of fundamentals
• We still see a constructive case for global carry led by high-beta EM
• European stocks should finally begin to turn in a decent performance too
• Brexit is a short-term risk with potential long-term consequences
• We remain positioned for ‘Bremain’ but our conviction is lower
• Long Gilts, short European stocks are cost-effective Brexit hedges