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Indian inflation out of control, RBI behind the curve
Consensus said:
Market expectation was for RBI to raise policy repo rate by 225bps and CRR by 75bps
We said:
India needs Volckers policy – assertive monetary tightening needed to control inflation (Daily Note 14th October 2009)
Outcome:
Repo rate up 325bps and CRR up 100bps. More is still needed.
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US long bond yield to be well down over 12 months
Consensus said:
1y forwards pricing 10 year yield at 3.6% Dec-10-Dec-11
We said:
US growth to stay below trend. The short term is seriously threatened by too much Q3 inventory building. This is highly likely to fall back, making a negative contribution to near-term GDP growth, aggravated by QE2’s higher food and energy prices. (Daily Note 3rd December 2010)
Outcome:
US growth at 1.9% in Q1, likely 1.8% in Q2, 10-year treasury yield down to 2.48 in August 2011
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Oil prices may remain bubbly while QE2 is on the cards
Consensus said:
Consensus Economics survey shows 2.3% rise from Oct 2010 spot – Sep 2011
We said:
The most direct and visible effect of QE is likely to be on asset prices. At least some will rebalance their portfolios. This portfolio rebalancing could present a substantial upside to commodities. (Daily Note 4th October 2010)
Outcome:
Oil prices then $81.4/bbl (WTI), $99/bbl in August 2011
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ECB won’t raise rates in 2010
Consensus said:
Markets began the year pricing in 110bps of tightening in 2010, by May markets were pricing 40bps tightening in the next 12 months.
We said:
There is not the slightest possibility of any sustained rise in inflation in the euro area in 2010, nor in 2010. ECB won’t raise rates in 2010. (Daily Note 18th May 2010)
Outcome:
ECB left interest rates unchanged in 2010, hiked in April 2011
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Chinese growth set for a sharp correction
Consensus said:
China set for a ‘soft landing’
We said:
At some point over the next four quarters China’s expansion is highly likely to be cut short, restrained by its cyclical barriers amid a sizable relapse of global growth. The longer the economy continues to boom and inflation is left unchecked, the worse the necessary growth correction is set to be. (Monthly Review July 2010)
Outcome:
Chinese domestic demand slowed sharply in H1 2011 under the impact of monetary tightening and administrative policy measures from late 2010 onwards
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UK house prices
Consensus said:
house prices overvalued by up to 30%-40%.
We said:
Interest rates of 4¾% will not lead to a house price crash: expect a stable market. "A crash in the housing market remains a distant prospect, with conditions simply not in place for a drastic fall in house prices" Quarterly Economic Forecast February 2005 .
Outcome:
House price inflation slowed to 3% and started to accelerate.
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Euroland
Consensus said:
Euroland growth remains weak, the ECB should cut interest rates
We said:
Euroland growth will be above-trend in 2004, slowing to trend in 2005. There will be no interest rate cuts.
Outcome:
Euroland growth was 1.7% in 2004 (trend = 1.5%), but slowed in Q2 2005. Interest rates remain unchanged in the year to date.
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Korea
Consensus said:
Korean household spending to recover strongly in 2004
We said:
Korean growth remains dependent on exports performance. Domestic demand, in particular household spending growth will not recover until 2005 and is unlikely to drive growth before 2006.
Outcome:
Household spending average quarterly growth in 2004: 0.1% vs 2.3% for exports
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Asian Tigers
Consensus said:
Strong growth for Asian tigers in 2004 and 2005
We said:
Once export growth cools in H2 2004 and following quarters, output growth will slow down abruptly. Indonesiaâ??s performance will remain countercyclical to the rest of Asia
Outcome:
Q1 GDP growth yoy halved in Singapore, Taiwan and Korea and slowed in Thailand. Indonesian growth accelerated from late 2004.
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UK housing market
Consensus said:
A slowdown from the current inflation rate of 15%.
We said:
Current reading suggests that house price inflation could rise back up towards 20% again by the summer.
Outcome:
House price inflation rose to 19% in May.The momentum in the housing market has taken many, including the Bank of England, by surprise.
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US debt markets
Consensus said:
US long rates moving higher
We said:
US bonds set to rally.
Outcome:
The ten year US treasury rallied over 75 basis points
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Japan turnaround
Consensus said:
Japan will continue to be crippled by deflation.The bad bank loan situation means Japanese stocks are not worth touching.
We said:
Japan is turning. Buy Japanese equities.
Outcome:
Nikkei has increased 50% since the lows of 2003.
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UK shares recovery
Consensus said:
Markets extremely nervous and pessimistic.
We said:
Valuations are now fair, even cheap - expect a bounce-back.
Outcome:
FTAS rose 33% in 12 months.
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US market bounce
Consensus said:
US stock market to rebound after two years of falls.
We said:
Stocks to perform badly again. There is a powerful case for US treasuries. US corporate bonds are better value than stocks.
Outcome:
Once again, stocks performed badly but US treasuries and corporate bonds did well.
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China's prospects
Consensus said:
Unlikely to take the world economy forward.
We said:
Medium term growth prospects for China are very good.
Outcome:
China has surprised some of the fiercest critics. GDP 9.1% for 2003.
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Commodity Prices
Consensus said:
Rising commodity prices unlikely to continue
We said:
At least in the medium term China will fuel domestic demand growth, attempting to counter the global economic cycle. This will invariably have an upward effect on commodity prices (Daily Note 19th September 2002)
Outcome:
Commodity prices continued their ascent
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US bonds preferred
Consensus said:
Stocks to do well after a fall this year.
We said:
Falling prices and a feeble US recovery means bonds will outperform stocks in 2002.
Outcome:
Bonds outperformed stocks in 2002.
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UK equities
Consensus said:
UK stock market would rebound after the disastrous falls in 2000.
We said:
Equities would perform poorly for the second year in a row.Commercial property and cash represented the safest investment vehicles.
Outcome:
Another dire year for stock markets. FTSE-100 fell a further 16%. Commercial property was the best-performing asset class with cash a second.
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US economy
Consensus said:
US to have a 'soft landing'. Corporate profits to rise gently.
We said:
Hard landing for US economy, sharp fall in corporate profits 2001-2002, shares to plummet.
Outcome:
US in recession from March 22% in year to Q3 2001.
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Telco 3G licences
Consensus said:
Telecommunications companies were right to pay enormous fees for 3G licences.
We said:
The Telcos were overvalued, crazy to pay such fees, and that they would run into financing difficulties in the future.
Outcome:
Continued decline in telecoms share prices in wake of bursting of high-tech bubble; significant problems at the major companies, including placing their enormous bond issues in the market.
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UK economy
Consensus said:
UK recession in 1999.
We said:
1.5% GDP growth in 1999 (the highest forecast out of 43).
Outcome:
2.1% GDP growth.
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US inflation
Consensus said:
2.2% US inflation in one year's time.
We said:
3% and rising.
Outcome:
3% and rising.
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Japan
Consensus said:
Fiscal policy can save Japan from recession.
We said:
Japanese fiscal policy has run its course.
Outcome:
Deepening recession.
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Asian markets
Consensus said:
Emerging Asia will give good returns.
We said:
Asia will have a crisis.
Outcome:
The Asian crisis.
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US economy
Consensus said:
US economy will slow.
We said:
The strong economy and bull market will continue.
Outcome:
Strong US growth.
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UK base rates
Consensus said:
UK base rates will rise from 6% to 8%.
We said:
Base rates will rise only slightly, to 6.5%.
Outcome:
Base rates rose to 6.5% in 1995, then fell in 1996. Many Lombard Street Research clients made 250 ticks on short sterling.
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German economy
Consensus said:
Germany will be the European locomotive.
We said:
German GDP will contract.
Outcome:
German GDP contracted.
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UK inflation
Consensus said:
Rising inflation (to 4.2%).
We said:
Falling inflation (3.5%) and strong growth.
Outcome:
The five years from Q2 1992 saw above-trend growth, and inflation was lower in1997 than in late 1992.
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Japan
Consensus said:
A model economy.
We said:
A decade of economic collapse.
Outcome:
Japan experienced a decade of economic collapse.
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UK economy
Consensus said:
UK economy would experience growth.
We said:
Recession.
Outcome:
GDP was 1.7% lower in Q4 1990.