Macro Economic Research
06
Jul
2015
Greece – ‘No’, Prime Minister


• Referendum yields a resounding, yet fragmented, ‘No’  
• Odds of Grexit have risen, though a deal is still possible  
• ‘Greek euro’ flotation with capital controls the least damaging so...

LSR Daily Note
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03
Jul
2015
Greece and EMs


• Emerging markets’ direct exposure to Greece is limited  
• Vulnerability increases considerably if we include the fallout on the euro area  
• The most damaging short-term impact may come from indirect ch...

LSR Daily Note
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02
Jul
2015
Pent up or spent up?

The euro-area recovery has strengthened, thanks to a rebound in household spending. Buoyant consumer surveys suggest this improvement will continue in H2 and if capex and employment recover, the euro area should have a decent 2016. Weak glo...

LSR Macro Picture
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02
Jul
2015
Chinese stock market plays yo-yo


• China’s equity market is for investors with strong stomachs  
• It has the blessing of the Party, but that doesn’t preclude violent swings  
• Is it a bull market or a dead-cat bounce? Our monetary...

LSR Daily Note
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Investment Strategy
01
Jul
2015
Back to macro

Despite the weekend referendum shock, a Greek deal is now more likely given the latest press reports. With the focus likely shifting back to macro now, we now see a resumption of our ongoing themes, including dollar strength and higher risk...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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29
Jun
2015
July 2015

The Fed has gone to significant lengths to reassure the market about the gradualness of the forthcoming tightening cycle. However, comparing the median “dots” to historical precedents, the path of policy rates expected by FOMC m...

LSR Chartbook
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24
Jun
2015
Beyond the deal

We should eventually get a Greek deal. The focus then shifts back to valuations and fundamental drivers. We remain confident of our view of European risk asset outperformance on a resumption of the “QE trade” and highlight the t...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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17
Jun
2015
Hedging Grexit risks

The tail risk of an accidental Grexit doesn’t appear to be something the markets are massively worried about. While a Grexit isn't our central scenario, we believe this could be too complacent and add long Bunds exposure as a shor...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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