Macro Economic Research
27
Jul
2015
The wolf of Wall Street


• Fed officials hint that they are about to start raising interest rates  
• Economists expect September lift-off, though many investors remain sceptical  
• Even as neutral policy rate rises, strong dollar could...

LSR Daily Note
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24
Jul
2015
Australia – Dutch disease goes fiscal


• End of the commodity supercycle has far-reaching fiscal implications  
• Government finances stuck in chronic deficit  
• Foreign debt build-up accelerating, but the level not yet a cause for alarm  
...

LSR Daily Note
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23
Jul
2015
The euro: weakness amidst surplus


• The euro area is a creditor economy with a debtor’s external investment position  
• The peripheral debt crisis is pushing the core’s surplus outside the euro area  
• Ongoing outflows will be neede...

LSR Daily Note
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22
Jul
2015
Chinese cloud still only on US horizon


• China’s real growth rate of below 4% reflects real bank lending rates of 10%  
• The authorities could hang tough for another year, but then let the yuan fall  
• US consumer spending and housing are humm...

LSR Daily Note
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Investment Strategy
22
Jul
2015
C/A and FX: should we care?

The answer is a qualified yes, but context is all. C/A surplus economies have excess savings and so a lower equilibrium interest rate, making their currencies natural funders for carry trades. So if you think it’s a good time for carr...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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20
Jul
2015
August 2015

With the euro having consolidated over the spring, a return of the balance-sheet trade looks likely. Last year, EUR/USD collapsed way ahead of the turn in the balance-sheet ratio. This was partly driven by the fact that despite tapering the...

LSR Chartbook
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15
Jul
2015
Oil decline and the related trades

In line with our June Asset Allocation recommendation, crude oil has resumed its decline. We add risk exposures to reflect the impact of the latest decline – duration in Gilts and long equity positions in India and Turkey. In all case...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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10
Jul
2015
Deal or ordeal?

The euro area has been on the verge of having its own Lehman moment after Greece said “no” at last Sunday’s referendum. While the odds of a Grexit have increased on the back of the vote, this is by no means inevitable. We...

LSR Asset Allocation
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