Macro Economic Research
28
Aug
2015
Italy’s bad debts


• Despite relatively low debts, Italian banks have serious NPL problem  
• Weak SME profits have raised NPLs, forcing banks to restrict credit  
• There are recent signs of improvement, but govt reforms vital &n...

LSR Daily Note
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27
Aug
2015
August storm could delay Fed lift-off


• Market jitters could postpone start of US rate rise cycle beyond September  
• China’s deflationary impulse suggests Fed can wait a few more months  
• The financial stability case for rate hikes is weak/...

LSR Daily Note
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26
Aug
2015
China moves spark optimism


• Beijing seems determined to liberalise its financial markets   
• The PBoC has removed the rate ceiling on deposits over one year  
• Expect a 10% yuan depreciation over 12-18 months as PBoC intervention w...

LSR Daily Note
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25
Aug
2015
More EM (internal) devaluations to come


• EM currencies other than the yuan have adjusted significantly in nominal terms  
• But our real EM FX index needs to fall another 9% just to reach 1998 levels  
• US policy can’t support EMs as in 1998, s...

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Investment Strategy
26
Aug
2015
Add risk after global selloff

China’s decision to devalue the yuan triggered a correction that has now reached extreme levels. Should this be seen by investors as a buying opportunity, or rather as a sign that the global cycle has turned? We think the former, and...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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25
Aug
2015
September 2015

The recent selloff in global risk assets left US equities (and several other DM indices) in deep oversold conditions. With valuations more reasonable now (though not exactly cheap) is it a good time to add risk, or is this just the beginnin...

LSR Chartbook
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19
Aug
2015
Is sentiment too bearish?

S&P 500 has been stuck in a range for months with bearish bets rising recently to multi-month extremes. We believe markets may be too pessimistic. At least tactically there is a case for going long stocks selectively given how extreme s...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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17
Aug
2015
Yuan devaluation: a currency skirmish

China’s decision to devalue the yuan last week may have been a surprise in terms of timing and mechanics, but we have been expecting a decline in the currency for some time. The size of the drop falls short of what would be needed to...

LSR Asset Allocation
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