Macro Economic Research
06
May
2015
EM equities: valuation seeking momentum


• EM stocks back to pre-taper tantrum levels, but missing macro impetus  
• EM FX in sync for now, while the dollar takes a breather  
• Attractive valuation alone not sufficient for sustained equity outperforman...

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05
May
2015
Cheap oil cuts savings glut – TIPS yield up?


• The world needs lower savings and debt, but curbing debt has raised saving  
• The oil price crash could boost world consumer incomes by ¾-1% of world GDP  
• Once consumers believe lower prices will las...

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01
May
2015
US – spring thaw, summer heat


• Without the Q1 hike in personal savings GDP growth would have been 2.8%  
• Consumer caution over oil-price windfall reinforced post-crisis depression  
• March dip in personal savings augurs for spring-summer...

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30
Apr
2015
Greek volatility steadies Spain


• Greece is exerting a powerful force over Spanish politics  
• The fading of Podemos marks another step in the ‘normalisation’ of Spain  
• But investor sentiment will oscillate until unemployment fa...

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Investment Strategy
06
May
2015
A technical “tantrum”?

With both risky and safe assets falling in tandem, yield curves bear-steepening, the dollar continuing its slide and oil bouncing back, investors have been widely wrongfooted. We see mostly technical factors at play. Fundamentals haven&rsqu...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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29
Apr
2015
(Sub)zero yields & opportunities

Bunds are technically overbought (as we showed in the May Chartbook) and there is a speculative element to it. We expect some pick-up in yields as positioning normalises. But yields will stay extremely low for months. We add to our long Eur...

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27
Apr
2015
May 2015

US Q4 2014 earnings have suffered from a sharp rise in the dollar in the preceding two quarters, which depressed non-USD revenues. Q1 2015 saw an even larger jump in the dollar but, despite this, the earnings season has had a much better st...

LSR Chartbook
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22
Apr
2015
Shifting correlations

US stock-FX correlation is now positive in contrast with the euro zone where the correlation has turned negative a la Japan. Both historical shifts reflect the divergent policy environments. Negative equity-FX correlations are likely to pre...

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