Macro Economic Research
12
Feb
2016
A test for European resilience


• Euro area GDP grew by 0.3% in Q4, helped by German spending on refugees  
• Lower oil prices should reignite consumption in Q1  
•  But corporate spending needed to prevent H2 slowdown  
Dari...

LSR Daily Note
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11
Feb
2016
Yellen keeps calm (but doesn’t carry on)


• Janet Yellen acknowledges growing risks, but doesn’t seem unduly worried  
• Given market stress, the Fed is unlikely to hike again until June  
• But if markets stabilise and growth improves, further rat...

LSR Daily Note
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10
Feb
2016
Korea – ready to act


• The bar for policy loosening has dropped low enough to justify imminent action  
• Domestic demand growth rests on fragile foundations  
• And the external environment is increasingly unfriendly  
...

LSR Daily Note
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09
Feb
2016
February 2016


• GLI and consensus converge, both expect improvement in 2016
• Export-exposed Germany and Japan LIs pick up in response
• US LI also rises, but strong dollar keeps external sector weak
• Chinese LI points to sluggish g...

LSR Global Leading Indicators
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Investment Strategy
10
Feb
2016
What makes a safe haven?

To an investor, a safe haven is an asset that gains in value when risky assets, chiefly equities, are selling off. It is usually a highly liquid and accessible security backed by credible institutions. But safe havens change over time. Comm...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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03
Feb
2016
Activist policy: how successful?

Policy activism in recent months appears to have had a much bigger impact on sovereign yields than exchange rates. The “success” of central bankers in pushing yields lower may be explained by globally declining inflation expecta...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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27
Jan
2016
EM slow burners still vulnerable

“Flash-crash” EM currencies have cheapened but have scope to fall further. However, the overvaluation is even greater in “slow-burn” EM FX. These currencies have the most to lose from continued yuan weakness given si...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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25
Jan
2016
February 2016

Over the past five years the relationship between equity prices and credit spreads has changed several times, with the familiar-looking ‘hockey stick’ curve moving increasingly to the right. The shift in the equity-credit curve...

LSR Chartbook
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