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• Euro area GDP grew by 0.3% in Q4, helped by German spending on refugees
• Lower oil prices should reignite consumption in Q1
• But corporate spending needed to prevent H2 slowdown
• Janet Yellen acknowledges growing risks, but doesn’t seem unduly worried
• Given market stress, the Fed is unlikely to hike again until June
• But if markets stabilise and growth improves, further rat...
• The bar for policy loosening has dropped low enough to justify imminent action
• Domestic demand growth rests on fragile foundations
• And the external environment is increasingly unfriendly
• GLI and consensus converge, both expect improvement in 2016
• Export-exposed Germany and Japan LIs pick up in response
• US LI also rises, but strong dollar keeps external sector weak
• Chinese LI points to sluggish g...
To an investor, a safe haven is an asset that gains in value when risky assets, chiefly equities, are selling off. It is usually a highly liquid and accessible security backed by credible institutions. But safe havens change over time. Comm...
Policy activism in recent months appears to have had a much bigger impact on sovereign yields than exchange rates. The “success” of central bankers in pushing yields lower may be explained by globally declining inflation expecta...
“Flash-crash” EM currencies have cheapened but have scope to fall further. However, the overvaluation is even greater in “slow-burn” EM FX. These currencies have the most to lose from continued yuan weakness given si...
Over the past five years the relationship between equity prices and credit spreads has changed several times, with the familiar-looking ‘hockey stick’ curve moving increasingly to the right. The shift in the equity-credit curve...