Macro Economic Research
02
Mar
2015
A shot in the arm


• The Modi budget has the right ingredients for raising medium-term growth  
• There is a thrust towards boosting investment and states’ fiscal autonomy  
• Yet the current parliamentary session is crucial...

LSR Daily Note
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27
Feb
2015
Chinese debt spillovers


• China’s growing FX debt raises the question of financial stability in CNH hubs  
• Increasing financial integration also makes offshore banks more vulnerable  
• Hong Kong banks appear safe, for now &nbs...

LSR Daily Note
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26
Feb
2015
Fed vs. bond market

The market is winning its battle with the Fed over rate hikes, mainly because the surge in the US dollar has already tightened monetary conditions. The central bank could drop its promise to be ‘patient’ in March, but may hold b...

LSR Macro Picture
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26
Feb
2015
Mission impossible


• Poland’s economy is experiencing ‘good’ deflation along with decent growth  
• But pressure to act is mounting on a fragmented rate-setting council  
• A split central bank is not good news fo...

LSR Daily Note
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Investment Strategy
25
Feb
2015
G10 themes after Greece/Yellen

To us, USD weakness after Yellen is no more than a reflection of positioning. Also, with near-term funding for Greece resolved, we see focus shifting to macro and policy drivers. Through the near-term positioning wash-out, we see a resumpti...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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23
Feb
2015
March 2015

Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s chief focus, has averaged just 1.7% over the last 20 years and during previous hiking cycles the Fed tended to hike rates way before the putative 2% target in core PCE inflation was hit (it was 1.26% in 1...

LSR Chartbook
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18
Feb
2015
Gilt yields and GBP are capped

Gilt yields and sterling have backed up sharply in recent days with markets seeing signs of diminishing dovishness in Bank of England’s language. We think both markets and the Bank will be surprised by further (core) disinflation. Gil...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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13
Feb
2015
A rebalancing act

The oil price crash has not only raised hopes of a consumer “boom” in North America and Europe, it is also sharply reducing global imbalances. Eurozone economies will enjoy the additional boost of central bank liquidity and a lo...

LSR Asset Allocation
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