Macro Economic Research
19
Dec
2014
Midnight in Moscow


• Russia is experiencing a liquidity crisis – heightened by lower oil prices  
• A bounce in oil would be only a temporary fillip to investor confidence  
• Removing financial sanctions is the only permanen...

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18
Dec
2014
Yellen’s nod to Russian side-show


• Yellen handled the market’s Russian panic much better than Greenspan ‘98  
• Meanwhile, subdued consumers justify the mild FOMC tone  
• Low wage growth which is nurturing rapid jobs and income grow...

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17
Dec
2014
Charting the slow-motion EM crisis


• 2014 was not a year of either crash or resurgence in emerging markets  
• It was a period of slow-burn adjustment  
• FX weakened, real rates rose and growth slowed – as we expected  
Shweta...

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16
Dec
2014
Is the consensus wrong?


• We outline what are by common consent the top five themes for 2015  
• An unexpected US slowdown would play havoc with the consensus  
• But China, ECB QE and Abenomics are more realistic risks  
...

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Investment Strategy
17
Dec
2014
Taking stock

Volatility has surged since our last edition of PT. Taking a longer view, we still feel reasonably comfortable being constructive on high-beta assets. While we are conscious of the potential for contagion risks in EM and therefore remain...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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12
Dec
2014
Returns deflation

We expect bond returns in 2015 to fall short of 2014’s. EM bonds offer the best positive surprise potential, but that would require emerging economies to continue being subject to global disinflationary pressures. DM equities are also...

LSR Asset Allocation
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10
Dec
2014
Turkey for Christmas

We continue to see Turkey as a key beneficiary of the positive oil-price shock and initiate a long Turkish equities position to add to our existing short EUR/TRY trade. The C/A deficit has narrowed significantly and oil-related improvemen...

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03
Dec
2014
Disinflation, debt and Oz rates

A structural slowdown along with high private indebtedness suggests the need for further policy easing in Australia down the line, especially as China and industrial metals continue to soften and Australian inflation, wage growth and capi...

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