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• The strong dollar and sluggish GDP growth have held back profits
• Consistent, major fiscal tightening since 2010 is now shifting to mild stimulus
• The dollar is unlikely to soar against DM currencies in 2...
• The IMF will decide on 30 November whether to include the yuan in the SDR
• Inclusion is almost certain, marking a crucial turning point for the global economy
• China and the world will have a real chance...
• The global deflation scare has receded, but is not gone
• Pressure on EMs is set to persist...
• ...and focus on EM differentiation should intensify
• The plunge in global exports earlier this year was the steepest since the GFC
• EMs have proven the weakest link
• World trade growth won’t regain pre-crisis highs, but the worst may be over ...
2015 has proved to be a tough year for trend-following / momentum type strategies after 2014 helped generate a large momentum bandwagon. Trend-reversal rules have done better in comparison. Relative value strategies with asymmetric risk-rew...
The EUR/USD divergence trade is likely to run for the time being. However, roadblocks exist down the road. We provide evidence on how the sensitivity of US inflation is now much lower to US spare capacity and higher to measures of global ac...
The Fed’s likely decision to raise rates in December is a strong confidence vote for the sustainability of the US recovery, in spite of the persistent slowdown in China and other EMs. Eurozone growth looks more fragile, but the ECB st...
Commodities have been and remain unloved since Chinese industrial growth began moderating in 2011. While concerns of oversupply relative to global demand underpin much of the commodity-bearish opinion, we find differentiating drivers betwee...