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Latest Macroeconomic Research
27
Jan
2012
Daily Notes - US GDP set for 2012 Q1...
We suggest: Stock market rally to reverse The unexpected element in the somewhat weak Q4 GDP growth was that two thirds of it came from a build-up of inventories. With domestic final demand as like...
27
Jan
2012
Daily Notes - Portugal - right behin...
With talks over Greek debt relief progressing slowly, the EU stuck between German continued demands for austerity and French enthusiasm to save the eurozone, market attention is again turning toward...
26
Jan
2012
Daily Notes - Correction to - 'US ca...
Correction is found in the last para on p.2, where the correct words "real government spending" were wrongly earlier left out in favour a second use of "inventories". US durable...
Latest ESR Research Updates
27
Jan
2012
Does the home market matter for Oil...
- France overtakes Spain as star of C...
- What happens to valuations when we...
- Spain remains ‘defensive', bu...
- US needs high oil and decoupling; U...
26
Jan
2012
Some Europe ex UK sectors pricing in...
- Europe ex UK p/e discount to US is...
- But falling profits could drive p/e...
- Forward EPS largely reflect poor pr...
- Retail (‘-1') remains expensi...
20
Jan
2012
South African market remains a ‘wa...
- South Africa outperforms emerging m...
- Positive contributions from varied...
- African exposure a positive across...
- Rand weakness supports market
- Telecoms largest mover in ICG, Reta...
Latest GIO Research
20
Jan
2012
GIO Monthly Report - The patient sti...
While the headwinds facing the global economy are severe, some recent indicators of global growth have been less depressing than seemed likely 2-3 months ago. Even so, a Euro Area recession in H1 lo...
09
Jan
2012
GIO Update - USD 1y10y vol cheap to...
USD/EUR 1y10y swaptions' implied vol spread trading flat is implying no medium-term directional bias in the 10-year rate spread, at odds with the historical directionality. Also, USD/EUR 1y10y impli...
04
Jan
2012
GIO Update - A leading indicator for...
We introduce a leading indicator for the yield spread in US/Euro benchmark bonds. The indicator suggests scope for spread widening is large, certainly larger than implied by the forwards. [Stefano D...
Forecasting Success
Twenty years of unrivalled forecasting accuracy in UK and international economic trends.
  • Indian inflation out of control, RBI behind the curve
    Consensus said: Market expectation was for RBI to raise policy repo rate by 225bps and CRR by 75bps
    We said: India needs Volckers policy – assertive monetary tightening needed to control inflation (Daily Note 14th October 2009)
    Outcome: Repo rate up 325bps and CRR up 100bps. More is still needed.
  • US long bond yield to be well down over 12 months
    Consensus said: 1y forwards pricing 10 year yield at 3.6% Dec-10-Dec-11
    We said: US growth to stay below trend. The short term is seriously threatened by too much Q3 inventory building. This is highly likely to fall back, making a negative contribution to near-term GDP growth, aggravated by QE2’s higher food and energy prices. (Daily Note 3rd December 2010)
    Outcome: US growth at 1.9% in Q1, likely 1.8% in Q2, 10-year treasury yield down to 2.48 in August 2011
  • Oil prices may remain bubbly while QE2 is on the cards
    Consensus said: Consensus Economics survey shows 2.3% rise from Oct 2010 spot – Sep 2011
    We said: The most direct and visible effect of QE is likely to be on asset prices. At least some will rebalance their portfolios. This portfolio rebalancing could present a substantial upside to commodities. (Daily Note 4th October 2010)
    Outcome: Oil prices then $81.4/bbl (WTI), $99/bbl in August 2011
  • ECB won’t raise rates in 2010
    Consensus said: Markets began the year pricing in 110bps of tightening in 2010, by May markets were pricing 40bps tightening in the next 12 months.
    We said: There is not the slightest possibility of any sustained rise in inflation in the euro area in 2010, nor in 2010. ECB won’t raise rates in 2010. (Daily Note 18th May 2010)
    Outcome: ECB left interest rates unchanged in 2010, hiked in April 2011
  • Chinese growth set for a sharp correction
    Consensus said: China set for a ‘soft landing’
    We said: At some point over the next four quarters China’s expansion is highly likely to be cut short, restrained by its cyclical barriers amid a sizable relapse of global growth. The longer the economy continues to boom and inflation is left unchecked, the worse the necessary growth correction is set to be. (Monthly Review July 2010)
    Outcome: Chinese domestic demand slowed sharply in H1 2011 under the impact of monetary tightening and administrative policy measures from late 2010 onwards
  • UK house prices
    Consensus said: house prices overvalued by up to 30%-40%.
    We said: Interest rates of 4¾% will not lead to a house price crash: expect a stable market. "A crash in the housing market remains a distant prospect, with conditions simply not in place for a drastic fall in house prices" Quarterly Economic Forecast February 2005 .
    Outcome: House price inflation slowed to 3% and started to accelerate.
  • Euroland
    Consensus said: Euroland growth remains weak, the ECB should cut interest rates
    We said: Euroland growth will be above-trend in 2004, slowing to trend in 2005. There will be no interest rate cuts.
    Outcome: Euroland growth was 1.7% in 2004 (trend = 1.5%), but slowed in Q2 2005. Interest rates remain unchanged in the year to date.
  • Korea
    Consensus said: Korean household spending to recover strongly in 2004
    We said: Korean growth remains dependent on exports performance. Domestic demand, in particular household spending growth will not recover until 2005 and is unlikely to drive growth before 2006.
    Outcome: Household spending average quarterly growth in 2004: 0.1% vs 2.3% for exports
  • Asian Tigers
    Consensus said: Strong growth for Asian tigers in 2004 and 2005
    We said: Once export growth cools in H2 2004 and following quarters, output growth will slow down abruptly. Indonesiaâ??s performance will remain countercyclical to the rest of Asia
    Outcome: Q1 GDP growth yoy halved in Singapore, Taiwan and Korea and slowed in Thailand. Indonesian growth accelerated from late 2004.
  • UK housing market
    Consensus said: A slowdown from the current inflation rate of 15%.
    We said: Current reading suggests that house price inflation could rise back up towards 20% again by the summer.
    Outcome: House price inflation rose to 19% in May.The momentum in the housing market has taken many, including the Bank of England, by surprise.
  • US debt markets
    Consensus said: US long rates moving higher
    We said: US bonds set to rally.
    Outcome: The ten year US treasury rallied over 75 basis points
  • Japan turnaround
    Consensus said: Japan will continue to be crippled by deflation.The bad bank loan situation means Japanese stocks are not worth touching.
    We said: Japan is turning. Buy Japanese equities.
    Outcome: Nikkei has increased 50% since the lows of 2003.
  • UK shares recovery
    Consensus said: Markets extremely nervous and pessimistic.
    We said: Valuations are now fair, even cheap - expect a bounce-back.
    Outcome: FTAS rose 33% in 12 months.
  • US market bounce
    Consensus said: US stock market to rebound after two years of falls.
    We said: Stocks to perform badly again. There is a powerful case for US treasuries. US corporate bonds are better value than stocks.
    Outcome: Once again, stocks performed badly but US treasuries and corporate bonds did well.
  • China's prospects
    Consensus said: Unlikely to take the world economy forward.
    We said: Medium term growth prospects for China are very good.
    Outcome: China has surprised some of the fiercest critics. GDP 9.1% for 2003.
  • Commodity Prices
    Consensus said: Rising commodity prices unlikely to continue
    We said: At least in the medium term China will fuel domestic demand growth, attempting to counter the global economic cycle. This will invariably have an upward effect on commodity prices (Daily Note 19th September 2002)
    Outcome: Commodity prices continued their ascent
  • US bonds preferred
    Consensus said: Stocks to do well after a fall this year.
    We said: Falling prices and a feeble US recovery means bonds will outperform stocks in 2002.
    Outcome: Bonds outperformed stocks in 2002.
  • UK equities
    Consensus said: UK stock market would rebound after the disastrous falls in 2000.
    We said: Equities would perform poorly for the second year in a row.Commercial property and cash represented the safest investment vehicles.
    Outcome: Another dire year for stock markets. FTSE-100 fell a further 16%. Commercial property was the best-performing asset class with cash a second.
  • US economy
    Consensus said: US to have a 'soft landing'. Corporate profits to rise gently.
    We said: Hard landing for US economy, sharp fall in corporate profits 2001-2002, shares to plummet.
    Outcome: US in recession from March 22% in year to Q3 2001.
  • Telco 3G licences
    Consensus said: Telecommunications companies were right to pay enormous fees for 3G licences.
    We said: The Telcos were overvalued, crazy to pay such fees, and that they would run into financing difficulties in the future.
    Outcome: Continued decline in telecoms share prices in wake of bursting of high-tech bubble; significant problems at the major companies, including placing their enormous bond issues in the market.
  • UK economy
    Consensus said: UK recession in 1999.
    We said: 1.5% GDP growth in 1999 (the highest forecast out of 43).
    Outcome: 2.1% GDP growth.
  • US inflation
    Consensus said: 2.2% US inflation in one year's time.
    We said: 3% and rising.
    Outcome: 3% and rising.
  • Japan
    Consensus said: Fiscal policy can save Japan from recession.
    We said: Japanese fiscal policy has run its course.
    Outcome: Deepening recession.
  • Asian markets
    Consensus said: Emerging Asia will give good returns.
    We said: Asia will have a crisis.
    Outcome: The Asian crisis.
  • US economy
    Consensus said: US economy will slow.
    We said: The strong economy and bull market will continue.
    Outcome: Strong US growth.
  • UK base rates
    Consensus said: UK base rates will rise from 6% to 8%.
    We said: Base rates will rise only slightly, to 6.5%.
    Outcome: Base rates rose to 6.5% in 1995, then fell in 1996. Many Lombard Street Research clients made 250 ticks on short sterling.
  • German economy
    Consensus said: Germany will be the European locomotive.
    We said: German GDP will contract.
    Outcome: German GDP contracted.
  • UK inflation
    Consensus said: Rising inflation (to 4.2%).
    We said: Falling inflation (3.5%) and strong growth.
    Outcome: The five years from Q2 1992 saw above-trend growth, and inflation was lower in1997 than in late 1992.
  • Japan
    Consensus said: A model economy.
    We said: A decade of economic collapse.
    Outcome: Japan experienced a decade of economic collapse.
  • UK economy
    Consensus said: UK economy would experience growth.
    We said: Recession.
    Outcome: GDP was 1.7% lower in Q4 1990.
2012 Seminar Dates
*Dates subject to revision, according to movements in markets.