Macro Economic Research
27
Mar
2015
The ECB taper risk


• Investors are worried about an early ECB exit from QE  
• The ECB has a history of premature policy tightening  
• But subdued inflation should keep the ECB in the QE game till 2016
Dario Perkins

LSR Daily Note
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26
Mar
2015
Profit scare

Investors are nervous about the outlook for US profits, given the strong dollar and the prospect of rising wages and higher interest rates. We think these fears are overdone. While the profit share of GDP may have peaked, the outlook for co...

LSR Macro Picture
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26
Mar
2015
The sterling vol shock absorber


• The May general election will usher in a new era of political instability  
• Growth will remain resilient, even as the road gets more bumpy  
• Sterling – especially sterling volatility – is likely...

LSR Daily Note
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25
Mar
2015
Britain's rollercoaster year


• Economic stability will trump political instability in 2015
• Growth will be consumer-led, but not debt-driven...
• ... as households benefit from lower oil and higher wages
• The May general election will test fiscal...

LSR View
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Investment Strategy
25
Mar
2015
Reviewing the trades post FOMC

The March FOMC dropped “patient” but lowered the “dots”. The Fed’s now closer to the market. We still see no serious challenge to our US rates and equities views. Changes in our economists’ views provide...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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18
Mar
2015
Positioning for a less patient Fed

The Fed is close to a policy-rate hike for the first time in almost a decade, even as global disinflationary pressures persist. Rate hikes will directly push up the short end, while subdued inflation will keep long-end re-pricing much gentl...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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16
Mar
2015
Dollar appreciation society

Fast dollar appreciation is hurting most “carry trades” (EM currencies, EM bonds, high yield credit, etc.). Global liquidity remains plentiful – G4 central bank assets will keep growing by about $900bn a year – but i...

LSR Asset Allocation
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11
Mar
2015
EM FX: what next?

Risks from a strong dollar are likely to be less than fully offset by ECB, BoJ QE. Ultimately, growth and policy will be the bigger drivers for EM FX, which is a more heterogeneous bunch than at any time in the last 15 years. We still like...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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