Macro Economic Research
26
Jul
2017
Britain’s growth hits soft patch


• Brexit pain has started to hit the economy  
• While business sentiment has weakened, the pace of hiring has remained solid  
• The economy is likely to continue to flirt with below-trend growth in H2, making a...

LSR Daily Note
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25
Jul
2017
The hidden boom


• Secular stagnation, or the start of a Third Industrial Revolution?  
• Official productivity data are not capturing rapid technological change  
• But slowing ITC diffusion remains a problem, with FANGs dominan...

LSR Daily Note
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24
Jul
2017
Yellen’s take on participation is problematic


• Fed misreads low participation rate by focusing on population
• The loss of goods-producing jobs is responsible, notably among high-school graduates
• Sluggish wage growth reflects a rise in low-paid jobs going t...

LSR Daily Note
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23
Jul
2017
Capital Ideas – Economy to DC

Economics: Leaning toward capital (spending)
• Is the 15-year bias favouring labour over capital coming to an end?
• Capital spending, not inflation, moves the economy forward
Markets: Equities love this presid...

US Watch
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Investment Strategy
19
Jul
2017
The bullish euro area trade


• The long-Europe trade continues to perform as the taper approaches
• But caution is always warranted around ECB meetings, especially this one
• Portfolio: stopped out of UK equities, tighten stops on EEM and Bund/UST
...

LSR Macro Strategy
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14
Jul
2017
Summer storms


• Draghi’s hawkish remarks in Sintra caused a storm in the markets
• Like most summer storms, it was intense but did not last long
• Goldilocks conditions (solid growth, low inflation) to persist
• Monetary policy...

LSR Asset Allocation
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12
Jul
2017
Long USD/CAD: low tail-risk pricing and BoC


• US politics will not distract from improving growth
• But markets ex-equities do show increasing fragility
• BoC in a hiking cycle despite the currency becoming a drag 
Oliver Brennan

LSR Macro Strategy
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05
Jul
2017
Policymakers won't derail the summer


• It’s natural for policymakers to adjust to reduced downside risk
• But ECB and FOMC will continue to determine pace of global tightening
• Low tail-risk pricing might be a problem, but not yet 
Oliver Br...

LSR Macro Strategy
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