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• Business & financial Brexit-related decisions due by early 2018
• So a UK Plan B covering the ‘no deal’ case needed by end-2017
• Key elements in Plan B covering agriculture, trade, finance
• Net effec...
Economics: Greece – the art of compromise
• Creditors set to iron out differences in June; Athens is playing along
• 2018 shaping up to be a pivotal year, both economically and politically
• Xi Jinping will enter his second term later this year with greater political power than ever
• His inclination is likely to be to push for more economic reform despite slowing growth
• The clash with politi...
• Unemployment is down sharply in most major economies
• But wages and core inflation rates haven’t really responded (so far)
• Is the Phillips curve broken?
• US/EA financial conditions diverge: tightening risk greater in US for now
• We go long EA vs US stocks on growth potential, valuations, monetary policy
• Brazil’s political scandal threatens reform, growth; we go sho...
• We remain bullish growth in the medium term
• But recent US political uncertainty is weighing on risk
• We hedge our portfolio through Gold, EUR/JPY in case this wobble persists
• ECB signalling of a reduction in asset purchases could start this summer
• Most of the impact of APP was in its signalling; the same is true for tapering
• We add long EUR/CHF to position for policy diversification...
• Global economy resilient, pulled by three locomotives
• China slowing from bumper Q1, growth to remain above trend
• Fed to increase fed funds rates much more than market expects
• Gradual ‘QT’ likely in 2...