Macro Economic Research
09
Feb
2016
February 2016


• GLI and consensus converge, both expect improvement in 2016
• Export-exposed Germany and Japan LIs pick up in response
• US LI also rises, but strong dollar keeps external sector weak
• Chinese LI points to sluggish g...

LSR Global Leading Indicators
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09
Feb
2016
Market turmoil to infect US households?


• Most households are exposed only indirectly through pensions  
• Housing recovery should provide a backstop to consumption  
• But inequality amplifies the effect of equity tremors on household savings  ...

LSR Daily Note
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08
Feb
2016
China’s half-a-trillion-dollar question


• Net capital outflows from China reached $640 billion last year  
• They reflect a reduction of foreign liabilities as well as hot money outflows  
• In an interlinked world, policymakers may still opt for gradu...

LSR Daily Note
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08
Feb
2016
China’s half-a-trillion-dollar question


• Net capital outflows from China reached $640 billion last year  
• They reflect a reduction of foreign liabilities as well as hot money outflows  
• In an interlinked world, policymakers may still opt for gradu...

LSR Daily Note
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Investment Strategy
03
Feb
2016
Activist policy: how successful?

Policy activism in recent months appears to have had a much bigger impact on sovereign yields than exchange rates. The “success” of central bankers in pushing yields lower may be explained by globally declining inflation expecta...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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27
Jan
2016
EM slow burners still vulnerable

“Flash-crash” EM currencies have cheapened but have scope to fall further. However, the overvaluation is even greater in “slow-burn” EM FX. These currencies have the most to lose from continued yuan weakness given si...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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25
Jan
2016
February 2016

Over the past five years the relationship between equity prices and credit spreads has changed several times, with the familiar-looking ‘hockey stick’ curve moving increasingly to the right. The shift in the equity-credit curve...

LSR Chartbook
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20
Jan
2016
G10 FX: safe havens vs high beta

JPY and EUR are among the established safe havens, while CHF has been losing that status. Commodity FX (AUD, CAD) continue to trade like high beta, with the response to terms-of-trade drivers the key differentiating factor. GBP is clearly n...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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