Macro Economic Research
17
Aug
2017
Fed’s minutes . . . . Housing’s hour?


• FOMC discusses inflation and doesn’t mention bank lending
• Whether rooted in demand or regulatory constraints, lending remains weak
• Housing is tilting a bit stronger – a key component for a better...

LSR Daily Note
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16
Aug
2017
Euro area buoyancy in six charts


• Euro zone recovery remains resilient and ‘even’ Italy is showing signs of life  
• Capex strengthens and consumers stay optimistic  
• Some labour market tightness indicators are breaching historica...

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15
Aug
2017
August 2017


• Global growth momentum stabilising around recent highs
• EMs gradually taking the baton as the US weighs on DM performance
• Euro area LI pausing for breath
• China LI consolidation points to a moderate slowdown in H2...

LSR Global Leading Indicators
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15
Aug
2017
Japanese rebalancing in search of a pay rise


• Domestic demand takes the baton in Q2 as exports slow  
• But sustained private consumption growth requires wages to pick up  
• Too soon to expect a change of course from the BoJ
Konstantinos Venetis&n...

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Investment Strategy
16
Aug
2017
The case for a stronger dollar


• US data starting to improve and Fed officials talking up another rate hike
• Market positioned for further USD falls despite short-term positives
• We add a long USD/CHF position and take profit on our EUR/SEK put spread...

LSR Macro Strategy
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09
Aug
2017
Playing with fire (and fury)


• Trump ‘fire and fury’ comments unleash vicious risk-off phase: will it last?
• Macro and corporate fundamentals remain good, as Q2 earnings show
• Absent an actual military escalation, the cycle should not be d...

LSR Macro Strategy
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02
Aug
2017
Forget US sanctions: Russia is a buy


• Weak USD helping EM assets, stocks buoyed by more balanced Chinese growth
• We add long Russian equity and rouble exposures via RTSI$ futures
• We trail the stop on EUR/CHF further to 1.13, extend target to 1.17
An...

LSR Macro Strategy
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01
Aug
2017
August 2017

The dollar index is sitting on key support levels and seems on the verge of a break lower. Valuations certainly support further dollar weakness, as the euro, pound and yen remain on a recovery path from historical undervaluation. However, s...

LSR Strategy Chartbook
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