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• The selection of the Chief Executive reinforces the central government’s hold.
• The political divide is set to widen. ...
• The dollar soared in 1980-85 as interest rates reached 20% to quell inflation
• Capital inflows to the US may slow as stocks peak and political doubts rise
• Large and growing trade imbalances also increasi...
Economics: Population dynamics set to drive spending higher
• Strong new home sales, data suggest more construction is coming
• Commercial property turning back up, based on loans and railcars
Politics: Not in Trump to...
• Growth solid in 2017/18 despite consumption setback
• Net trade and capex to benefit from weak sterling and benign world trade
• BoE needs to normalise monetary policy to contain inflation
• Soft tone in commodity markets is another crack in the reflation trade
• Advance in global inflation expectations has reached stall speed
• Risk asset ‘reset’ on the cards as markets seek new fuel for the next...
• We increase our pro-cyclicality adding equities, commodities...
• ...while reducing government bonds and high yield credit
• Fed hikes to quicken but no balance sheet reduction for now
• Market and political ris...
• Monetary policy divergence between US and EA is probably past its peak
• As a result, the abnormally high UST-Bund 10y spread should narrow
• Recent correlation points to higher EUR/USD too, but timing remains key
• We expect the Fed to raise rates by 150-200bp by the middle of 2018
• The market is pricing in only 75bp of hikes over the same period
• We add a 2s10s UST flattener as we see the market converging on our view