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Economics: ECB doves still dominant
• ‘Lower for longer’ strategy aimed at pushing back rate hike expectations
• German real wage-Phillips curve still steep; Spanish surveys to take a hit
• Fed is the primary provider of global liquidity, no longer “lender of last resort”
• Short-term, Quantitative Tightening (QT) should help global liquidity, the impact otherwise is expected to be small...
• Underlying economic momentum is softer than headline Q3 GDP suggests
• Fading manufacturing capex and consumer strength could deepen the coming slowdown
• But the moderation could mark the end of the multi-...
• Economics: Underlying momentum is weaker than the GDP data suggest
• Politics: Xi Jinping aims for a new growth model
• Markets: China at the IMF annual meetings
Michelle Lam, Jonathan Fenby, Larry...
• Short-term event-driven volatility rising in USD and CAD
• But long-term uncompetitiveness to keep Canadian growth on back foot
• Take profit on USD/CAD call spread, go long US-Canada 10y spread
• Equity valuations high due to low rates, strong earnings growth
• No sign of irrational exuberance as investors still focused on risks
• Bonds expensive, yields to rise on Fed hikes, ECB ‘recalibration’
• Party Congress is a key event in Chinese politics but not for markets
• Equity rally to continue, driven by inflows and RRR cut
• We raise stops on EM equity trades to lock in further profits
• Brent-WTI spread to narrow as US exports pick up
• Investor rotation from Korea to India not evident, market ignoring geopolitics
• Buy WTI / sell Brent and close long INR/KRW for small profit
Oliver Brennan, Andre...