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• 2018 a sweet spot year for both OPEC and US shale
• But the apparent ‘ceasefire’ is an unstable equilibrium
• Record hedging points to sustained US production increases
• US exports making the battle for m...
• Global momentum holding steady
• US LI rises further
• Euro area showing strength
• China LI momentum slowing
• Robust exports supporting Japan/Korea LIs
• India growing again, but the road is uphill
• The apparent ceasefire between OPEC and US shale is inherently unstable
• Surging US exports are changing the rulebook in the battle for global market share
• US supply dynamics, Russian opportunism preclud...
Economics: Accelerating into 2018… then what?
• Positive data favour the Fed’s policy trajectory, not the market’s
• Room to expand production and capex. This is not an inflation cycle
2017 has been a spectacular year for investors, but 2018 promises to be less rosy. Bond yields are finally set to rise as the distortive effects of QE fade in the second half of the year. And with valuations already at cyclical highs, equit...
• 2017 was a year to remember for stocks, 2018 set to be different
• Returns to be in line with EPS growth; central case is low teens
• But fear of missing out makes upside risk scenario (bubble) likely
• Vol at record...
• Funding squeeze into year-end, again
• We buy a 1m EUR/USD put to hedge risk of a sharp dollar rally
• In the medium term EUR-bullish fundamentals should reassert themselves
• After tax success, President Trump may now focus on trade and NAFTA
• Mexico is in his crosshairs; next year’s election also a risk
• MXN is cheap and risks are in the price; sell USD/MXN rallies