Macro Economic Research
26
May
2017
Brexit Plan B needed this autumn


• Business & financial Brexit-related decisions due by early 2018
• So a UK Plan B covering the ‘no deal’ case needed by end-2017
• Key elements in Plan B covering agriculture, trade, finance
• Net effec...

LSR View
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26
May
2017
Thin red lines

Economics: Greece – the art of compromise
• Creditors set to iron out differences in June; Athens is playing along
• 2018 shaping up to be a pivotal year, both economically and politically  
Politics: Centr...

Europe Watch
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26
May
2017
China: Xi’s choice


• Xi Jinping will enter his second term later this year with greater political power than ever  
• His inclination is likely to be to push for more economic reform despite slowing growth  
• The clash with politi...

China In Depth
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26
May
2017
Central banks under the curve


• Unemployment is down sharply in most major economies  
• But wages and core inflation rates haven’t really responded (so far)  
• Is the Phillips curve broken?
Dario Perkins

LSR Daily Note
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Investment Strategy
24
May
2017
Fed vs ECB: buy EA vs US stocks; sell BRL/MXN


• US/EA financial conditions diverge: tightening risk greater in US for now
• We go long EA vs US stocks on growth potential, valuations, monetary policy
• Brazil’s political scandal threatens reform, growth; we go sho...

LSR Macro Strategy
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18
May
2017
Risk off: We go long Gold, short EUR/JPY


• We remain bullish growth in the medium term
• But recent US political uncertainty is weighing on risk
• We hedge our portfolio through Gold, EUR/JPY in case this wobble persists
Oliver Brennan

LSR Macro Strategy
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17
May
2017
ECB signalling can be the biggest step


• ECB signalling of a reduction in asset purchases could start this summer
• Most of the impact of APP was in its signalling; the same is true for tapering 
• We add long EUR/CHF to position for policy diversification...

LSR Macro Strategy
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12
May
2017
Tightening is not frightening


• Global economy resilient, pulled by three locomotives
• China slowing from bumper Q1, growth to remain above trend
• Fed to increase fed funds rates much more than market expects
• Gradual ‘QT’ likely in 2...

LSR Asset Allocation
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