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• Slumping EA domestic demand hurt UK exports, boosted the pound artificially
• Can Scotland afford UK exit? – England to rebalance in favour of the north
• Mass immigration has worsened inequality, but...
• Medium-term impact of Brexit could be an end to the UK cycle
• Beyond Britain, the outcome depends on confidence and financial markets
• Risk premiums for Europe have risen, warranting a more cautious stance
• Asymmetric positioning produces a sharp market response to UK vote
• Medium-term impact could be an end to UK cycle; monetary easing will help
• Direct, longer-term economic implications are limited, but po...
Both the ECB and BoJ are battling low inflation and seem to be approaching the limits of their current stimulus programmes. Japan faces the more difficult policy questions, since its deflation problem is largely structural (unlike the euro...
• A Remain win will bring us back to the mundane issue of fundamentals
• We still see a constructive case for global carry led by high-beta EM
• European stocks should finally begin to turn in a decent performance too
• Brexit is a short-term risk with potential long-term consequences
• We remain positioned for ‘Bremain’ but our conviction is lower
• Long Gilts, short European stocks are cost-effective Brexit hedges
• Short-end rates pricing of Fed-policy path has been state dependent
• The markets and the Fed seem to differ about the state of the economy
• The Fed’s own indicators show the markets haven’t been wrong
• As we expected, the dollar has failed to strengthen beyond a relief rally
• Carry/EM to still benefit given better fundamentals and valuations
• Given this, MXN underperformance is puzzling; we suggest a tactical long