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• Big changes are coming at the Fed, the ECB and the BoJ
• But if central banks are ‘rate takers’ – as they claim – this shouldn’t matter
• Perhaps the biggest risk is the change...
• ‘Permanent exclusion’ measures of core inflation have been creeping higher
• So have ‘trimmed mean’ rates, which are a better guide to underlying trends
• Our ‘more core’...
• EM economies account for a growing share of rising export volumes
• Asia contributes the greatest share export growth among EM regions
• Risks include US-China trade frictions and slowing Chinese import gro...
Economy: Yellen hopes inflation is out on the horizon
• Rebound from 2015-16 still a little short even without hurricanes
• 2% real growth will eventually boost wages, supporting higher prices
• Hawkish BoE shocked market expectations, out of line with UK sentiment
• GBP rally also driven by short-squeeze; buy EUR/GBP when it’s over
• Ahead of the taper and elections we go long the BTP-Bund spread at 160bp...
• Locomotives and Goldilocks: world economy stronger for longer
• Central banks to become net asset sellers by mid-2018
• Equity valuations rich but there are good reasons for it
• Bonds are expensive too, repricing lik...
• We add an ECB taper trade via high-yield spreads
• We raise stops on our equity trades and lift our take-profit target on EEM
• We go long USD/CAD again, as data suggest a bounce is due
• Short-term downside risks to EUR but trend remains to topside
• ECB’s taper to have greatest impact on fixed income
• Euro’s drag on stocks mostly a translation effect; fundamentals to dominate