Macro Economic Research
02
Jul
2015
Pent up or spent up?

The euro-area recovery has strengthened, thanks to a rebound in household spending. Buoyant consumer surveys suggest this improvement will continue in H2 and if capex and employment recover, the euro area should have a decent 2016. Weak glo...

LSR Macro Picture
Download
02
Jul
2015
Chinese stock market plays yo-yo


• China’s equity market is for investors with strong stomachs  
• It has the blessing of the Party, but that doesn’t preclude violent swings  
• Is it a bull market or a dead-cat bounce? Our monetary...

LSR Daily Note
Download
01
Jul
2015
Grexit contagion


• The euro area is better placed to withstand Grexit than in 2012  
• But there could still be contagion to other parts of the euro area  
• Breaking euro irrevocability sets a dangerous longer-term precedent &n...

LSR Daily Note
Download
30
Jun
2015
LSR mid-term report


• Half-way through 2015, our global forecasts look broadly on track  
• The US and China were weaker in H1, but Europe stronger  
• Global savings pinning yields down, supporting asset prices  
Dari...

LSR Daily Note
Download
Investment Strategy
01
Jul
2015
Back to macro

Despite the weekend referendum shock, a Greek deal is now more likely given the latest press reports. With the focus likely shifting back to macro now, we now see a resumption of our ongoing themes, including dollar strength and higher risk...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
Download
29
Jun
2015
July 2015

The Fed has gone to significant lengths to reassure the market about the gradualness of the forthcoming tightening cycle. However, comparing the median “dots” to historical precedents, the path of policy rates expected by FOMC m...

LSR Chartbook
Download
24
Jun
2015
Beyond the deal

We should eventually get a Greek deal. The focus then shifts back to valuations and fundamental drivers. We remain confident of our view of European risk asset outperformance on a resumption of the “QE trade” and highlight the t...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
Download
17
Jun
2015
Hedging Grexit risks

The tail risk of an accidental Grexit doesn’t appear to be something the markets are massively worried about. While a Grexit isn't our central scenario, we believe this could be too complacent and add long Bunds exposure as a shor...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
Download
LSR App LSR Services