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• Debate over the effect of sterling depreciation on the UK trade balance rages on
• Meanwhile, the current account is likely to improve due to valuation effects
• This will reverse the deterioration in retur...
This publication is part of our China In Depth service. Click here for more detail.
• China’s growth is unhealthy and unbalanced
• PPI positive and households spending more
• Growth will fade as gove...
• Both demand and supply factors have curtailed the housing recovery
• But rents are rising and household balance sheets are healthy
• Pent-up demand should support the market as renters look to buy
• India’s credit transmission channel remains weak
• Broad money growth sluggish
• Cash holdings surge
• Recent dollar strength has been attributed to repricing before Dec FOMC
• But USD/EM and USD/DM (DXY) look quite different; it isn’t just a USD story
• We suggest long (ZAR, MXN) and short (SGD) trades against this b...
• The inflationary impact of the 20% decline in GBP REER still lies ahead
• Gilt sell-off to moderate near term, but inflation premium to rise further
• Gilt yields remain low relative to plausible estimates of fair value #...
• The ECB will likely extend QE, giving bonds short-term support
• After that it will taper, causing yields to rise sharply
• We estimate ‘fair value’ yields to be 1-1½% higher than now
• We stay 0 on...
• EM parallels after joint sell-off in Gilts and sterling look misplaced
• Sustainability may look poor on C/A but not on net foreign asset position
• We suggest an options structure to position for near-term sterling topsid...