Macro Economic Research
17
Nov
2017
If you build it, they will come

Economics: Capex strength
• EA recovery strengthens; manufacturing and construction improve
• Germany firmly in the lead, but Italy also enjoying a cyclical bounce
Markets: Mamma Mia, here I go again
• EUR/SEK...

Europe Watch
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17
Nov
2017
India: Modi’s growth gamble wins upgrade


• Bank recapitalisation is yet another massive political and economic gamble  
• The reform is not enough to jump start growth and will intensify clash with RBI  
• Deep reforms depend on Modi building political...

LSR Daily Note
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16
Nov
2017
November 2017

Highlights
• Global upswing still ‘on’ as momentum consolidates
• US LI advancing
• Euro area indicator going strong
• China LI cooling down
• Exports nurturing Japan/Korea LIs
• Indian distorti...

LSR Global Leading Indicators
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16
Nov
2017
Financial liberalisation - a step forward


• Markets: Financial opening up will further boost inflows, but foreign penetration will be gradual  
• Economics: October data suggest no spring in sight yet  
• Politics: Xi is putting the “communist&rdqu...

China In Depth
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Investment Strategy
17
Nov
2017
The end is not nigh


• Despite calls that the end is near, the business cycle will carry on
• Breadth of global growth is ‘unprecedented’, less debt-dependent
• Investor positioning far from stretched despite bullish outlook
• E...

LSR Asset Allocation
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15
Nov
2017
Mind the gaps


• Rising vol into year-end reflects a misplaced focus on central banks
• Year-end political upside risk for UK is under-priced: buy EUR/GBP put spread
• Inflation capitulation in SEK ignores fundamentals: buy EUR/SEK put spr...

LSR Macro Strategy
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08
Nov
2017
Tax reform: winners, and winners


• Tech stocks likely to benefit from repatriation tax cut
• Small caps to benefit from headline tax cuts, but mostly priced in
• Larger fiscal deficit to boost growth: in sum, equities well set for further gains
Oliv...

LSR Macro Strategy
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01
Nov
2017
After the ECB: we buy Spanish stocks


• Dovish taper is still a taper: EUR set to rise
• Lack of near-term yield catalysts, but strong growth increases upside yield risk
• Buy IBEX: cheap valuation, recent underperformance and positive EA outlook
Oliver...

LSR Macro Strategy
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