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• This is our annual report card, assessing our 2015 global forecasts
• We called the EM slowdown and correctly identified most of the main themes
• But we were a little too bullish on the US and too bearish...
• The strong dollar and sluggish GDP growth have held back profits
• Consistent, major fiscal tightening since 2010 is now shifting to mild stimulus
• The dollar is unlikely to soar against DM currencies in 2...
• The IMF will decide on 30 November whether to include the yuan in the SDR
• Inclusion is almost certain, marking a crucial turning point for the global economy
• China and the world will have a real chance...
• The global deflation scare has receded, but is not gone
• Pressure on EMs is set to persist...
• ...and focus on EM differentiation should intensify
Many of our clients are concerned that US earnings may be past their top for this cycle. US headline EPS peaked in Q3 2014, with the numbers for Q3 2015 about 5% lower than a year ago. Corporate profits took a dive starting late last year b...
2015 has proved to be a tough year for trend-following / momentum type strategies after 2014 helped generate a large momentum bandwagon. Trend-reversal rules have done better in comparison. Relative value strategies with asymmetric risk-rew...
The EUR/USD divergence trade is likely to run for the time being. However, roadblocks exist down the road. We provide evidence on how the sensitivity of US inflation is now much lower to US spare capacity and higher to measures of global ac...
The Fed’s likely decision to raise rates in December is a strong confidence vote for the sustainability of the US recovery, in spite of the persistent slowdown in China and other EMs. Eurozone growth looks more fragile, but the ECB st...