Sorry, this report is not included in your subscription.
To access this report, please contact our client relations team on: Europe +44 (0) 20 7246 7808, Americas +1 212 367 7644, Asia +1 212 367 7644 or e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org.
Forgotten your username/password
If you wish to change your password you can alter your access details on the “My Settings” page, available inside the client area.
Access to the full report is restricted to clients.
For a free trial of our services, please click here.
Already a client? Please login at the top of this page.
• Brexit pain has started to hit the economy
• While business sentiment has weakened, the pace of hiring has remained solid
• The economy is likely to continue to flirt with below-trend growth in H2, making a...
• Secular stagnation, or the start of a Third Industrial Revolution?
• Official productivity data are not capturing rapid technological change
• But slowing ITC diffusion remains a problem, with FANGs dominan...
• Fed misreads low participation rate by focusing on population
• The loss of goods-producing jobs is responsible, notably among high-school graduates
• Sluggish wage growth reflects a rise in low-paid jobs going t...
Economics: Leaning toward capital (spending)
• Is the 15-year bias favouring labour over capital coming to an end?
• Capital spending, not inflation, moves the economy forward
Markets: Equities love this presid...
• The long-Europe trade continues to perform as the taper approaches
• But caution is always warranted around ECB meetings, especially this one
• Portfolio: stopped out of UK equities, tighten stops on EEM and Bund/UST
• Draghi’s hawkish remarks in Sintra caused a storm in the markets
• Like most summer storms, it was intense but did not last long
• Goldilocks conditions (solid growth, low inflation) to persist
• Monetary policy...
• US politics will not distract from improving growth
• But markets ex-equities do show increasing fragility
• BoC in a hiking cycle despite the currency becoming a drag
• It’s natural for policymakers to adjust to reduced downside risk
• But ECB and FOMC will continue to determine pace of global tightening
• Low tail-risk pricing might be a problem, but not yet