Macro Economic Research
27
Mar
2017
Beijing tightens its grip on Hong Kong

This publication is part of our China In Depth service. Click here for more detail
• The selection of the Chief Executive reinforces the central government’s hold.  
• The political divide is set to widen.  ...

China In Depth
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27
Mar
2017
It’s the Trump dollar, not the Reagan dollar


• The dollar soared in 1980-85 as interest rates reached 20% to quell inflation  
• Capital inflows to the US may slow as stocks peak and political doubts rise  
• Large and growing trade imbalances also increasi...

LSR Daily Note
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26
Mar
2017
What’s bred in the bone…

Economics: Population dynamics set to drive spending higher
• Strong new home sales, data suggest more construction is coming
• Commercial property turning back up, based on loans and railcars
Politics: Not in Trump to...

US Watch
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24
Mar
2017
LSR UK Outlook Q3


• Growth solid in 2017/18 despite consumption setback  
• Net trade and capex to benefit from weak sterling and benign world trade  
• BoE needs to normalise monetary policy to contain inflation

LSR UK Outlook
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Investment Strategy
22
Mar
2017
Commodities' cautionary message


• Soft tone in commodity markets is another crack in the reflation trade
• Advance in global inflation expectations has reached stall speed
• Risk asset ‘reset’ on the cards as markets seek new fuel for the next...

LSR Macro Strategy
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17
Mar
2017
Riding the cycle


• We increase our pro-cyclicality adding equities, commodities... 
• ...while reducing government bonds and high yield credit
• Fed hikes to quicken but no balance sheet reduction for now
• Market and political ris...

LSR Asset Allocation
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15
Mar
2017
UST-Bund spread: prepare for landing


• Monetary policy divergence between US and EA is probably past its peak
• As a result, the abnormally high UST-Bund 10y spread should narrow
• Recent correlation points to higher EUR/USD too, but timing remains key
...

LSR Macro Strategy
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08
Mar
2017
US Treasuries' slippery slope


• We expect the Fed to raise rates by 150-200bp by the middle of 2018
• The market is pricing in only 75bp of hikes over the same period
• We add a 2s10s UST flattener as we see the market converging on our view
Andr...

LSR Macro Strategy
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