Macro Economic Research
05
Mar
2015
The charmed life of Oz


• China’s slowdown and collapsing iron ore prices have hurt Australia ...  
• But export volumes have grown strongly despite only modest A$ depreciation  
• So in a savings-glut world Australia’s live...

LSR Daily Note
Download
04
Mar
2015
South Africa – staying power missing


• Sustainability of recent improvement in the growth/inflation mix is tenuous  
• Additional fiscal stimulus is constrained by budgetary targets  
• Monetary policy efficacy remains compromised by structural impe...

LSR Daily Note
Download
03
Mar
2015
Oil crash – the impact so far


• There is some evidence that the oil price crash has hit US capex  
• Real consumer incomes up sharply in the US and Europe, boosting confidence  
• But consumption yet to improve – the benefits should com...

LSR Daily Note
Download
02
Mar
2015
A shot in the arm


• The Modi budget has the right ingredients for raising medium-term growth  
• There is a thrust towards boosting investment and states’ fiscal autonomy  
• Yet the current parliamentary session is crucial...

LSR Daily Note
Download
Investment Strategy
04
Mar
2015
US consumer boom after a soft patch

The recent oil slump will probably cause a soft patch for the US economy in the first half of this year. But looking beyond the initial negative consequences on oil producers and capex, the benefits for US consumers will dominate. We positi...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
Download
25
Feb
2015
G10 themes after Greece/Yellen

To us, USD weakness after Yellen is no more than a reflection of positioning. Also, with near-term funding for Greece resolved, we see focus shifting to macro and policy drivers. Through the near-term positioning wash-out, we see a resumpti...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
Download
23
Feb
2015
March 2015

Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s chief focus, has averaged just 1.7% over the last 20 years and during previous hiking cycles the Fed tended to hike rates way before the putative 2% target in core PCE inflation was hit (it was 1.26% in 1...

LSR Chartbook
Download
18
Feb
2015
Gilt yields and GBP are capped

Gilt yields and sterling have backed up sharply in recent days with markets seeing signs of diminishing dovishness in Bank of England’s language. We think both markets and the Bank will be surprised by further (core) disinflation. Gil...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
Download
LSR App LSR Services