Macro Economic Research
31
Jul
2015
Q2 GDP confirms US housing boom


• Q2’s 2.3% growth rate follows an upwardly revised Q1  
• Housing growth revised sharply up to 10% rate in Q4 and Q1, with 6½% in Q2  
• Buoyancy of housing and consumer spending points to 3% Q3-Q4...

LSR Daily Note
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30
Jul
2015
Productive incapacity

Productivity has slowed in most developed countries since the global financial crisis. This deterioration looked cyclical at first but now structural explanations are gaining traction. All else equal, slower trend productivity should imply...

LSR Macro Picture
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30
Jul
2015
BoE hits the pound barrier


• UK’s domestic recovery is becoming increasingly solid…  
• …but is still vulnerable to external weakness, mostly via sterling strength  
• The BoE is still on course to tighten, but will be...

LSR Daily Note
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29
Jul
2015
Korea’s restrictive ‘chaebol loop’


• Economic slowdown set to persist unless exports stage a revival in H2  
• Corporate profit erosion and cash hoarding present headwinds to private demand  
• Deteriorating GDP outlook and looser policy mix takin...

LSR Daily Note
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Investment Strategy
29
Jul
2015
Duration attractive for now

Renewed commodities collapse in the wake of the relentless China slowdown is keeping duration attractive, helping our long-end rates exposures in the UK and Australia. The 10-year Gilt hit our 1.90 target earlier. We see scope for further d...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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22
Jul
2015
C/A and FX: should we care?

The answer is a qualified yes, but context is all. C/A surplus economies have excess savings and so a lower equilibrium interest rate, making their currencies natural funders for carry trades. So if you think it’s a good time for carr...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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20
Jul
2015
August 2015

With the euro having consolidated over the spring, a return of the balance-sheet trade looks likely. Last year, EUR/USD collapsed way ahead of the turn in the balance-sheet ratio. This was partly driven by the fact that despite tapering the...

LSR Chartbook
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15
Jul
2015
Oil decline and the related trades

In line with our June Asset Allocation recommendation, crude oil has resumed its decline. We add risk exposures to reflect the impact of the latest decline – duration in Gilts and long equity positions in India and Turkey. In all case...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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