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• FOMC discusses inflation and doesn’t mention bank lending
• Whether rooted in demand or regulatory constraints, lending remains weak
• Housing is tilting a bit stronger – a key component for a better...
• Euro zone recovery remains resilient and ‘even’ Italy is showing signs of life
• Capex strengthens and consumers stay optimistic
• Some labour market tightness indicators are breaching historica...
• Global growth momentum stabilising around recent highs
• EMs gradually taking the baton as the US weighs on DM performance
• Euro area LI pausing for breath
• China LI consolidation points to a moderate slowdown in H2...
• Domestic demand takes the baton in Q2 as exports slow
• But sustained private consumption growth requires wages to pick up
• Too soon to expect a change of course from the BoJ
• US data starting to improve and Fed officials talking up another rate hike
• Market positioned for further USD falls despite short-term positives
• We add a long USD/CHF position and take profit on our EUR/SEK put spread...
• Trump ‘fire and fury’ comments unleash vicious risk-off phase: will it last?
• Macro and corporate fundamentals remain good, as Q2 earnings show
• Absent an actual military escalation, the cycle should not be d...
• Weak USD helping EM assets, stocks buoyed by more balanced Chinese growth
• We add long Russian equity and rouble exposures via RTSI$ futures
• We trail the stop on EUR/CHF further to 1.13, extend target to 1.17
The dollar index is sitting on key support levels and seems on the verge of a break lower. Valuations certainly support further dollar weakness, as the euro, pound and yen remain on a recovery path from historical undervaluation. However, s...