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• Public-private partnership projects have gathered pace in 2016
• But PPPs may just be a new form of LGFVs with more risk-sharing &n...
• Trump’s election lured out the Treasury bear even earlier than we forecast
• Fed policy much too loose for a mildly overheated economy with fiscal easing
• Bear market through 2017, with a rising doll...
Global debt has reached new highs and with financial conditions tightening after the US election, some investors fear another debt crisis. USD strength is the obvious short-term risk, as it could intensify the global dollar shortage. China&...
China Perspectives is part of our China In Depth service. Click here for more detail. Chinese domestic gas prices are rising ahead of expected shortages this winter. That is positive for the market, for NOCs and, probably, for gas distri...
• Italy, ECB and the Fed likely to help near-term Trump-trade unwinds
• As for much of 2016, events more than fundamentals will be in focus
• One attractive hedge is to play near-term EUR/JPY downside
With the Italian constitutional referendum only a few days away, investors’ concerns about the future of the euro have once again soared. Our Euro Risk Index is back to levels last seen just before the Brexit referendum. While Ital...
• The ~60bp rise in yields since the election is entirely a Trump move
• The sketchiness of prospective policy details points to an overshoot
• Market looks priced for a sharp further rise; we see a more gentle path
• Trump’s inflationary policies favour real over nominal assets
• EMs caught between rising bond yields and a stronger dollar
• We cut UST and Gilts to -2, a few other DM bonds to -1, EMs to 0
• In credit we downg...