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• The US shale phenomenon continues to undercut OPEC+ oil price support
• Unlike its OPEC partners, Russia can adjust to oil below US$50/bbl
• Russia might therefore break ranks with OPEC and compete with US...
• Economics: Further inflows require capital market deepening and opening, which will be gradual
• Politics: Reformers will try to use MSCI conditionality to push for more market-orientated changes
• Yield curve to steepen as ECB exits its QE programme
• Term premia may drive up the long end even as short rates stay well anchored
• The impact on the euro could be swifter and greater than on the yield cu...
• Wage and price inflation unlikely to turn higher anytime soon
• Real growth, spurred by capital expenditure, looks set to rise
• Leverage for capex is what should spur Fed to raise real policy rates above z...
• Lower inflationary pressure and strong growth bring back Goldilocks
• We are bullish equities, particularly in EM, where stocks have lagged DM
• We go long the EEM ETF; on UK concerns we go short the FTSE 250/100 ratio #@...
• Inflation low for longer and growth still solid: Goldilocks is back!
• One more US rate hike this year, but Fed turns less hawkish
• Risk of boom-bust receding, duration of equity bull extended
• Unit labour costs bel...
• Fed hikes plus global demand for Treasuries equals flatter curve
• German growth locomotive giving Sweden a helping hand: we go long SEK
• We lower our target in short BRL/MXN and take off EUR/JPY short
• Market expectations of a hawkish ECB move on Thursday are premature
• But longer-term dynamics remain positive for EUR and EU yields
• We trail stops in our portfolio to lock in some profit on market moves