Regulatory notice
*You will only be required to do this once.
FCA regulations require us to notify any users of the Services of their client categorisation. LSRFS is only authorised to provide Services to Professional Clients. By ticking the I Agree box you agree to be categorised as a Professional Client in any future relationship you may have with LSRFS. Please note that FCA regulations require us to keep this information for at least five years.
You may request a different categorisation but LSRFS is under no obligation to agree to any such request. You must notify LSRFS immediately if you suspect that you may no longer qualify to be categorised as a Professional Client, in which case LSRFS will not be able to continue to provide you with the Services.
The standard terms and conditions governing the relationship between LSRFS and its clients are given below. They are also available on the website.
The Client has purchased a non-transferable, non-exclusive, license to access specific services provided by LSRFS including without limitation the Global Investment Opportunities services, Equity Strategy Research services and/or any other services provided and invoiced by LSRFS (“Services”), as applicable, which will be subject to the following terms and conditions. Unless otherwise notified by LSRFS, the Client will be categorised as a professional client pursuant to the FCA Conduct of Business Sourcebook (COBS) 3.5. If the Client believes that this categorisation is incorrect, the Client may request a different categorisation but LSRFS is under no obligation to agree to any such request. The Client acknowledges that in respect of the regulated activities for which LSRFS is authorised, the only relevant category of client for whom it has permission to provide the Services is the category of professional client. The Client shall, accordingly, notify LSRFS immediately if it suspects that it may no longer qualify to be categorised as a professional client, in which case LSRFS will not be required to continue to provide the Client with the Services. LSRFS shall treat the Client alone as LSRFS’ client for the purposes of this Agreement and the Client will be liable as such. The Client acknowledges and agrees that no other person (whether disclosed to LSRFS or not) shall be LSRFS’ client nor have any rights under this Agreement, unless it expressly agrees otherwise in writing.
LICENCE DEFINITIONS
A Limited User License permits access by up to the number of stated, named users at a single site.
COPYRIGHT, LICENCING & DISTRIBUTION
Information provided is subject to LSRFS copyright and distribution terms. Information may not be reproduced, abstracted, sorted or transmitted in any way other than under the terms set out in this Agreement. If information is incorporated in commercially published reports, services or publications, in whatever format, then you, the client organisation (“Client”), will seek LSRFS’ permission before using the information. In the event that the amount of data in such commercially produced articles is significant then LSRFS reserves the right to charge the Client a fee or royalty, which reflects the amount of information used.
The "content" within the site is also referred to in this Agreement as "material", "intellectual property" "report" and "data". Once the Client, or a person within the Client’s organisation, has had access to any content subject to these terms and conditions, the Client is agreeing that it is deemed to be aware of, and consents to, this Agreement.
1. AVAILABILITY OF SERVICES: LSRFS will use reasonable endeavours to ensure that the Services will be made available to the Client 24 hours per day ("Normal Service Availability"). However LSRFS reserves the right to, a) vary the Normal Service Availability in any way provided it gives the Client 48 hours’ notice of its intention to do so. b) suspend the Services temporarily in the event of technical difficulties or other circumstances beyond the reasonable control of LSRFS. In the event of any such variation or suspension of Services LSRFS will use all reasonable endeavours to resume Normal Service Availability as soon as practicable but shall not be liable for any loss, damage or claim caused by such variation or suspension.
2. AUTHORISED USE OF SERVICES: (i) Access to the Services is restricted to the specific users. The Client will notify LSRFS as soon as a user has left the company, or no longer requires access, so that a replacement user can be assigned access during the term of the Agreement. ii) Where specific IP addresses are authorised to have access, these should be notified. iii) The Client also warrants that: (a) it shall ensure that any user name, password or other identification measure employed to access the Services is not disclosed to any person other than the persons authorized to access the same; and (b) all authorized persons will use the Services only in accordance with this Agreement; and (c) its information technology systems and paper record systems are secure and not capable of penetration (including by 'hacking' or physically) by unauthorized persons and that all data derived from the Services shall be kept secure; and (d) it shall comply with all applicable laws and regulations relating to the activities contemplated under this Agreement, in particular the Data Protection Act 1998.
3. OWNERSHIP OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY: (i) The Client acknowledges that: (a) all Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) (including all patents, copyrights, rights in software, design rights, trade marks, service marks, trade secrets, know-how, database rights, domain names, and all other similar intellectual or industrial property rights (whether registered or unregistered)) and all applications or renewals for the same, anywhere in the world) in the Services, the information contained therein, in all documentation, training materials and related matter, and in all parts thereof, are owned by LSRFS or the relevant third party licensor; (b) it does not have any IPR nor any other proprietary interests in the Services, or in any data or material contained in it; and (c) except as expressly permitted in this Agreement, nothing herein shall be taken as conferring by implication, estoppel or otherwise any license or right to use any IPR in the Services without the prior written approval of LSRFS or third parties who may own such IPR. (ii)The Client undertakes that it will not copy, reproduce, extract or transmit in any form or otherwise deal with in any way, the whole or part of the data, materials or information contained in the Services except as provided in sub-clauses (iv) (a.) and (b.) below. (iii) Unless otherwise agreed in writing in advance by LSRFS, the material (in whole or in part) may not be sold, nor passed on, communicated, or disseminated in any form, nor access granted to any third party (including but not limited to clients/potential clients/suppliers/agents/partners in other ventures/accountants/solicitors/bankers/ brokers/licensees). Nor to any subsidiary, associated or holding company (whether direct or indirect) of the Client, whether trading or non-trading, or to any entity trading under the same umbrella trading name where the direct equity interest is different in any way to that of the Client. (iv)The Client may only use the Services for its own business or internal purposes as follows: (a.) It may only store material in the memory of, display material upon the monitor of, and use the printing facilities connected to, the PC through which the Services are being accessed in order to download and/or access material. Where the Client effectively copies, or has effectively copied, the intellectual property onto a hard disk, file server or equivalent at its own premises for ease of use, reference or any other reason, it is hereby agreeing to limit access to the nominated users unless otherwise agreed in writing, and upon payment of additional fees to LSRFS. (b.) distribute copies in paper and/or electronic form of material so long as all copies made are distributed: within the immediate organization of the Client and the Client acknowledges that any distribution to any third party outside of its organization (including without limitation any subsidiary, associated or holding company of the Client) then it hereby indemnifies LSRFS against any claim arising from the unauthorized distribution and will without prejudice to any other rights and remedies available be liable for a sum equivalent to the loss in sales revenue caused by any unauthorized distribution of any part(s) of any report(s).
The Client, (or any subsequent user, whether licensed or unlicensed), will not place financial reliance upon any figure, statement or inference contained within any LSRFS' report or intellectual property, or invite investment from others, without first obtaining the written consent of LSRFS' company secretary so to do. In the event that the Client (or any subsequent user, whether licensed or unlicensed) does not follow this procedure, it (or any subsequent user, whether licensed or unlicensed) agrees to fully and effectually indemnify LSRFS against any claims, howsoever arising.
4. PAYMENT: The Client undertakes to pay for the supply of the Services on terms agreed with LSRFS and undertakes to settle invoices issued by LSRFS in respect of the Services within 30 days of receipt unless otherwise agreed in writing by LSRFS and expressed as such in the Agreement specification.
5.LIMITATION ON LIABILITY: (i) Except as provided in clause 5 (ii), all conditions and warranties whether express or implied by statute or otherwise (including but not limited to those as to description, merchantability or fitness for purpose) are excluded from this Agreement. LSRFS aims to ensure that material contained within the Services is accurate and complete, LSRFS gives no warranty, express or implied, that the material supplied as part of the Services is suitable for any particular purpose. (ii) LSRFS will use all reasonable efforts to ensure that the Services and any software relating thereto provided by LSRFS will perform in accordance with any LSRFS user guide that is available. In the event of an established failure of the Services, LSRFS' obligation shall be limited to using its reasonable efforts to remedy any deficiencies in the relevant Services, or at its option, to cancelling, crediting or refunding all charges due from the Client in respect of any period for which the Services have failed to perform correctly. The obligation to correct defects or cancel, credit or refund a proportionate part of the charges described above shall constitute the full extent of LSRFS' liability in respect of any loss or damage sustained by the Client whether caused by breach of this Agreement, misrepresentation, negligence of LSRFS (or its employees or agents) or from any other cause, and in particular, LSRFS shall not be liable for any consequential, economic or other direct or indirect loss (including but not limited to any damages payable to a third party, loss of profits or wasted resources) suffered by the Client, provided that if for any reason this provision is invalid or unenforceable, the maximum aggregate liability of LSRFS shall not exceed the total annual charges payable by the Client for the Services. The exclusions and limitations of liability set out in this Agreement shall not apply in the case of death or personal injury caused by either party’s negligence, fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation or any other liability that cannot be limited or excluded as a matter of applicable law. LSRFS does not exclude or limit its duties or liabilities under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended or re-enacted from time to time).
6. CONFIDENTIALITY: The Client undertakes to keep confidential and not to disclose to any third party or to use itself, any confidential or secret information in any form directly or indirectly belonging or relating to LSRFS, its or their business affairs, disclosed by LSRFS or received by the Client pursuant to or in the course of this Agreement ("Confidential Information"). The Client undertakes to disclose Confidential Information of LSRFS only to those of its officers, employees, agents and contractors to whom and to the extent to which disclosure is necessary for the purposes contemplated under this Agreement. The above obligations of confidentiality and non-use shall not apply to information or material: (i) which is in the possession of the Client prior to receipt from LSRFS, as evidenced by documents in the possession of the Client at the time of disclosure; (ii) which, after receipt from LSRFS, is disclosed to the Client by a third party having the legal right to do so and without a legal obligation to keep confidential; (iii) which is available to the public at the time of receipt of LSRFS; or (d) which becomes available to the public after receipt from LSRFS through no fault of the Client.
7. FORCE MAJEURE: No party shall be liable to the other for the delay or non-performance of its obligations under this Agreement arising from any cause or causes beyond its reasonable control including without limitation, any of the following: act of God, government act, war, fire, flood, explosion or civil commotion.
8. WAIVER: No forbearance or delay by LSRFS in enforcing its rights will prejudice or restrict the rights of LSRFS, and no waiver of any such rights or of any breach of any contractual terms will be deemed to be a waiver of any other right or of any later breach.
9. NO ASSIGNMENT: The benefit of this Agreement may not be assigned in whole or in part by the Client without the prior written consent of LSRFS
10. INVALIDITY: If any party of this Agreement shall be held unenforceable the rest of the Agreement shall nevertheless remain in full force and effect.
11. NOTICES: Any notice required or permitted to be given by either of the parties shall be in writing addressed to the other party at the address notified by the other party in writing from time to time. Any notice will be properly served if delivered personally or sent by registered mail. In the absence of evidence of earlier receipt, any such notice shall be deemed to have been given if; left personally, when left at the address specified in this clause 12; or sent by registered mail, two days after posting.
12. ENTIRE AGREEMENT: This Agreement constitutes the whole agreement between the Client and LSRFS relating to its subject matter and supersedes any prior agreements, undertakings, representations, warranties and arrangements of any nature, whether in writing or oral, relating to such subject matter. Neither party has any liability to the other for a representation or statement not set out in this Agreement. Nothing in this Agreement excludes or limits either party’s liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation.
13. THIRD PARTY RIGHTS ACT: Only the Client and LSFRS shall have any rights pursuant to the Contract (Rights of Third Parties) Act 1999.
14. GOVERNING LAW: The Agreement is subject to English law and to the exclusive jurisdiction of the English courts.
Registered Office: Pellipar House, 9 Cloak Lane, London EC4R 2RU.
Registered in England No. 6862824
FCA Firm Reference Number: 502674
CLIENT CATEGORISATION
You are about to access material produced by Lombard Street Research Financial Services Ltd (LSRFS). LSRFS is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FCA Firm Reference Number: 502674) for advising on investments (except on pension transfers and pension opt outs) and entered in the FCA’s register. LSRFS’s material including without limitation the Global Investment Opportunities services, Equity Strategy Research services and/or any other services provided and invoiced by LSRFS (“Services”) is intended to encourage better understanding of economic policy and financial markets. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodities, securities or investments. Although the information compiled herein is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.FCA regulations require us to notify any users of the Services of their client categorisation. LSRFS is only authorised to provide Services to Professional Clients. By ticking the I Agree box you agree to be categorised as a Professional Client in any future relationship you may have with LSRFS. Please note that FCA regulations require us to keep this information for at least five years.
You may request a different categorisation but LSRFS is under no obligation to agree to any such request. You must notify LSRFS immediately if you suspect that you may no longer qualify to be categorised as a Professional Client, in which case LSRFS will not be able to continue to provide you with the Services.
The standard terms and conditions governing the relationship between LSRFS and its clients are given below. They are also available on the website.
STANDARD TERMS & CONDITIONS ("AGREEMENT")
REGULATOR AND RESPONSIBILITYThe Client has purchased a non-transferable, non-exclusive, license to access specific services provided by LSRFS including without limitation the Global Investment Opportunities services, Equity Strategy Research services and/or any other services provided and invoiced by LSRFS (“Services”), as applicable, which will be subject to the following terms and conditions. Unless otherwise notified by LSRFS, the Client will be categorised as a professional client pursuant to the FCA Conduct of Business Sourcebook (COBS) 3.5. If the Client believes that this categorisation is incorrect, the Client may request a different categorisation but LSRFS is under no obligation to agree to any such request. The Client acknowledges that in respect of the regulated activities for which LSRFS is authorised, the only relevant category of client for whom it has permission to provide the Services is the category of professional client. The Client shall, accordingly, notify LSRFS immediately if it suspects that it may no longer qualify to be categorised as a professional client, in which case LSRFS will not be required to continue to provide the Client with the Services. LSRFS shall treat the Client alone as LSRFS’ client for the purposes of this Agreement and the Client will be liable as such. The Client acknowledges and agrees that no other person (whether disclosed to LSRFS or not) shall be LSRFS’ client nor have any rights under this Agreement, unless it expressly agrees otherwise in writing.
LICENCE DEFINITIONS
A Limited User License permits access by up to the number of stated, named users at a single site.
COPYRIGHT, LICENCING & DISTRIBUTION
Information provided is subject to LSRFS copyright and distribution terms. Information may not be reproduced, abstracted, sorted or transmitted in any way other than under the terms set out in this Agreement. If information is incorporated in commercially published reports, services or publications, in whatever format, then you, the client organisation (“Client”), will seek LSRFS’ permission before using the information. In the event that the amount of data in such commercially produced articles is significant then LSRFS reserves the right to charge the Client a fee or royalty, which reflects the amount of information used.
The "content" within the site is also referred to in this Agreement as "material", "intellectual property" "report" and "data". Once the Client, or a person within the Client’s organisation, has had access to any content subject to these terms and conditions, the Client is agreeing that it is deemed to be aware of, and consents to, this Agreement.
1. AVAILABILITY OF SERVICES: LSRFS will use reasonable endeavours to ensure that the Services will be made available to the Client 24 hours per day ("Normal Service Availability"). However LSRFS reserves the right to, a) vary the Normal Service Availability in any way provided it gives the Client 48 hours’ notice of its intention to do so. b) suspend the Services temporarily in the event of technical difficulties or other circumstances beyond the reasonable control of LSRFS. In the event of any such variation or suspension of Services LSRFS will use all reasonable endeavours to resume Normal Service Availability as soon as practicable but shall not be liable for any loss, damage or claim caused by such variation or suspension.
2. AUTHORISED USE OF SERVICES: (i) Access to the Services is restricted to the specific users. The Client will notify LSRFS as soon as a user has left the company, or no longer requires access, so that a replacement user can be assigned access during the term of the Agreement. ii) Where specific IP addresses are authorised to have access, these should be notified. iii) The Client also warrants that: (a) it shall ensure that any user name, password or other identification measure employed to access the Services is not disclosed to any person other than the persons authorized to access the same; and (b) all authorized persons will use the Services only in accordance with this Agreement; and (c) its information technology systems and paper record systems are secure and not capable of penetration (including by 'hacking' or physically) by unauthorized persons and that all data derived from the Services shall be kept secure; and (d) it shall comply with all applicable laws and regulations relating to the activities contemplated under this Agreement, in particular the Data Protection Act 1998.
3. OWNERSHIP OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY: (i) The Client acknowledges that: (a) all Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) (including all patents, copyrights, rights in software, design rights, trade marks, service marks, trade secrets, know-how, database rights, domain names, and all other similar intellectual or industrial property rights (whether registered or unregistered)) and all applications or renewals for the same, anywhere in the world) in the Services, the information contained therein, in all documentation, training materials and related matter, and in all parts thereof, are owned by LSRFS or the relevant third party licensor; (b) it does not have any IPR nor any other proprietary interests in the Services, or in any data or material contained in it; and (c) except as expressly permitted in this Agreement, nothing herein shall be taken as conferring by implication, estoppel or otherwise any license or right to use any IPR in the Services without the prior written approval of LSRFS or third parties who may own such IPR. (ii)The Client undertakes that it will not copy, reproduce, extract or transmit in any form or otherwise deal with in any way, the whole or part of the data, materials or information contained in the Services except as provided in sub-clauses (iv) (a.) and (b.) below. (iii) Unless otherwise agreed in writing in advance by LSRFS, the material (in whole or in part) may not be sold, nor passed on, communicated, or disseminated in any form, nor access granted to any third party (including but not limited to clients/potential clients/suppliers/agents/partners in other ventures/accountants/solicitors/bankers/ brokers/licensees). Nor to any subsidiary, associated or holding company (whether direct or indirect) of the Client, whether trading or non-trading, or to any entity trading under the same umbrella trading name where the direct equity interest is different in any way to that of the Client. (iv)The Client may only use the Services for its own business or internal purposes as follows: (a.) It may only store material in the memory of, display material upon the monitor of, and use the printing facilities connected to, the PC through which the Services are being accessed in order to download and/or access material. Where the Client effectively copies, or has effectively copied, the intellectual property onto a hard disk, file server or equivalent at its own premises for ease of use, reference or any other reason, it is hereby agreeing to limit access to the nominated users unless otherwise agreed in writing, and upon payment of additional fees to LSRFS. (b.) distribute copies in paper and/or electronic form of material so long as all copies made are distributed: within the immediate organization of the Client and the Client acknowledges that any distribution to any third party outside of its organization (including without limitation any subsidiary, associated or holding company of the Client) then it hereby indemnifies LSRFS against any claim arising from the unauthorized distribution and will without prejudice to any other rights and remedies available be liable for a sum equivalent to the loss in sales revenue caused by any unauthorized distribution of any part(s) of any report(s).
The Client, (or any subsequent user, whether licensed or unlicensed), will not place financial reliance upon any figure, statement or inference contained within any LSRFS' report or intellectual property, or invite investment from others, without first obtaining the written consent of LSRFS' company secretary so to do. In the event that the Client (or any subsequent user, whether licensed or unlicensed) does not follow this procedure, it (or any subsequent user, whether licensed or unlicensed) agrees to fully and effectually indemnify LSRFS against any claims, howsoever arising.
4. PAYMENT: The Client undertakes to pay for the supply of the Services on terms agreed with LSRFS and undertakes to settle invoices issued by LSRFS in respect of the Services within 30 days of receipt unless otherwise agreed in writing by LSRFS and expressed as such in the Agreement specification.
5.LIMITATION ON LIABILITY: (i) Except as provided in clause 5 (ii), all conditions and warranties whether express or implied by statute or otherwise (including but not limited to those as to description, merchantability or fitness for purpose) are excluded from this Agreement. LSRFS aims to ensure that material contained within the Services is accurate and complete, LSRFS gives no warranty, express or implied, that the material supplied as part of the Services is suitable for any particular purpose. (ii) LSRFS will use all reasonable efforts to ensure that the Services and any software relating thereto provided by LSRFS will perform in accordance with any LSRFS user guide that is available. In the event of an established failure of the Services, LSRFS' obligation shall be limited to using its reasonable efforts to remedy any deficiencies in the relevant Services, or at its option, to cancelling, crediting or refunding all charges due from the Client in respect of any period for which the Services have failed to perform correctly. The obligation to correct defects or cancel, credit or refund a proportionate part of the charges described above shall constitute the full extent of LSRFS' liability in respect of any loss or damage sustained by the Client whether caused by breach of this Agreement, misrepresentation, negligence of LSRFS (or its employees or agents) or from any other cause, and in particular, LSRFS shall not be liable for any consequential, economic or other direct or indirect loss (including but not limited to any damages payable to a third party, loss of profits or wasted resources) suffered by the Client, provided that if for any reason this provision is invalid or unenforceable, the maximum aggregate liability of LSRFS shall not exceed the total annual charges payable by the Client for the Services. The exclusions and limitations of liability set out in this Agreement shall not apply in the case of death or personal injury caused by either party’s negligence, fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation or any other liability that cannot be limited or excluded as a matter of applicable law. LSRFS does not exclude or limit its duties or liabilities under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended or re-enacted from time to time).
6. CONFIDENTIALITY: The Client undertakes to keep confidential and not to disclose to any third party or to use itself, any confidential or secret information in any form directly or indirectly belonging or relating to LSRFS, its or their business affairs, disclosed by LSRFS or received by the Client pursuant to or in the course of this Agreement ("Confidential Information"). The Client undertakes to disclose Confidential Information of LSRFS only to those of its officers, employees, agents and contractors to whom and to the extent to which disclosure is necessary for the purposes contemplated under this Agreement. The above obligations of confidentiality and non-use shall not apply to information or material: (i) which is in the possession of the Client prior to receipt from LSRFS, as evidenced by documents in the possession of the Client at the time of disclosure; (ii) which, after receipt from LSRFS, is disclosed to the Client by a third party having the legal right to do so and without a legal obligation to keep confidential; (iii) which is available to the public at the time of receipt of LSRFS; or (d) which becomes available to the public after receipt from LSRFS through no fault of the Client.
7. FORCE MAJEURE: No party shall be liable to the other for the delay or non-performance of its obligations under this Agreement arising from any cause or causes beyond its reasonable control including without limitation, any of the following: act of God, government act, war, fire, flood, explosion or civil commotion.
8. WAIVER: No forbearance or delay by LSRFS in enforcing its rights will prejudice or restrict the rights of LSRFS, and no waiver of any such rights or of any breach of any contractual terms will be deemed to be a waiver of any other right or of any later breach.
9. NO ASSIGNMENT: The benefit of this Agreement may not be assigned in whole or in part by the Client without the prior written consent of LSRFS
10. INVALIDITY: If any party of this Agreement shall be held unenforceable the rest of the Agreement shall nevertheless remain in full force and effect.
11. NOTICES: Any notice required or permitted to be given by either of the parties shall be in writing addressed to the other party at the address notified by the other party in writing from time to time. Any notice will be properly served if delivered personally or sent by registered mail. In the absence of evidence of earlier receipt, any such notice shall be deemed to have been given if; left personally, when left at the address specified in this clause 12; or sent by registered mail, two days after posting.
12. ENTIRE AGREEMENT: This Agreement constitutes the whole agreement between the Client and LSRFS relating to its subject matter and supersedes any prior agreements, undertakings, representations, warranties and arrangements of any nature, whether in writing or oral, relating to such subject matter. Neither party has any liability to the other for a representation or statement not set out in this Agreement. Nothing in this Agreement excludes or limits either party’s liability for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation.
13. THIRD PARTY RIGHTS ACT: Only the Client and LSFRS shall have any rights pursuant to the Contract (Rights of Third Parties) Act 1999.
14. GOVERNING LAW: The Agreement is subject to English law and to the exclusive jurisdiction of the English courts.
COMPANY DETAILS
Lombard Street Research Financial Services LimitedRegistered Office: Pellipar House, 9 Cloak Lane, London EC4R 2RU.
Registered in England No. 6862824
FCA Firm Reference Number: 502674
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Consensus said: Chinese economy to soft-land (growth 9-10%)We said: “China’s overheated economy risks a slump. Chinese policy makers have to slam on the brakes if they want to prevent accelerating inflation”. (Monthly Review 26th January 2011)Outcome: GDP growth slows through 2011. Q42011 GDP slowest for 2.5 years, Q12012 GDP slowest for 3 years. Shanghai Composite Index down 20%. -
US growth to accelerate H2 due to cap-ex spending
Consensus said: Consensus forecasts for end-2011 GDP slide away: Q1 3.2%, Q2 2.5%, Q3 1.6%, Q4 1.7%.We said: “100% first-year depreciation…creates an unprecedented incentive to bring business capital spending forward from 2012 into 2011. This intensifies hugely the likely upswing in GDP at end-2011”. (Asset Allocation: Americas 1st April 2011)Outcome: 2011Q1 GDP 0.4%, 2011Q2 GDP 1.3%, 2011Q3 GDP 1.8% , 2011Q4 GDP 2.8% -
India must raise rates to battle inflation – stocks will suffer
Consensus said: Sensex to rise 20% to 23,350 in 2011We said: “With growth slowing, inflation rising and further monetary tightening almost certain…stocks could fall to 16,000”. (Daily Notes 28th February 2011)Outcome: Sensex falls 25% in 2011 to finish the year at 15,175 -
Over-tightening, not overheating threatens Brazil
Consensus said: Markets priced in 80bps tightening May 2011 – Jan 2012We said: “Brazil’s bias towards ultra-tight monetary policy could prove highly damaging. Calls for higher rates, capital controls and a weaker currency are misplaced”. (Daily Notes 9th May 2011)Outcome: Interest rates up 50bps then rapidly ‘surprise’ cut back by 50bps -
UK house prices to stagnate
Consensus said: Views range from -10% upwards with average -5%We said: “UK house prices are to be little changed this year”. Our model forecasts house price inflation of -0.8%. (Quarterly Economic Forecast 4th February 2011)Outcome: UK house prices fell -0.9% -
Oil price to begin secular fall
Consensus said: JP Morgan upgrades forecast to $109.5/bblWe said: “Market attention has returned to Libya and the Gulf, pushing oil prices back towards their peaks. High prices incorporate both supply concerns and a Saudi Arabia risk premium. Absent the disruption of Gulf oil supplies, prices should ease back”. (Daily Notes 22nd March 2011)Outcome: WTI then $104/bbl, fell to $86/bbl in 6 months -
€ crisis continues to worsen - divergence to be extreme
Consensus said: Rating agencies complacent, spreads did not reflect crisis until April 2010We said: 2010 will bring no let-up for divergent EMU bond ratings. The monetary union was propogated in the late 1990s as a weapon to solidify peace in Europe. As we said at the time, it is more likely to ensure at least unnecessary grief and discord quite possibly something a good deal worse. The first place to look for the financial effects of all this will be in the government bond markets - but it could well become increasingly visible on the streets as well. (Daily Notes 5th January 2010)Outcome: € area continues to suffer economic turmoil, periphery vs core spreads widen dramatically -
Chinese growth set for a sharp correction
Consensus said: China set for a ‘soft landing’We said: At some point over the next four quarters China’s expansion is highly likely to be cut short, restrained by its cyclical barriers amid a sizable relapse of global growth. The longer the economy continues to boom and inflation is left unchecked, the worse the necessary growth correction is set to be. (Monthly Review 19th July 2010)Outcome: Chinese domestic demand slowed sharply in H1 2011 under the impact of monetary tightening and administrative policy measures from late 2010 onwards -
US long bond yield to be well down over 12 months
Consensus said: 1y forwards pricing 10 year yield at 3.6% Dec-10-Dec-11We said: US growth to stay below trend. The short term is seriously threatened by too much Q3 inventory building. This is highly likely to fall back, making a negative contribution to near-term GDP growth, aggravated by QE2’s higher food and energy prices. (Daily Notes 3rd December 2010)Outcome: US growth at 1.9% in Q1, likely 1.8% in Q2, 10-year treasury yield down to 2.48 in August 2011 -
Indian inflation out of control, RBI behind the curve
Consensus said: Market expectation was for RBI to raise policy repo rate by 225bps and CRR by 75bpsWe said: India needs Volckers policy – assertive monetary tightening needed to control inflation (Daily Notes 14th October 2009)Outcome: Repo rate up 325bps and CRR up 100bps. More is still needed. -
Oil prices may remain bubbly while QE2 is on the cards
Consensus said: Consensus Economics survey shows 2.3% rise from Oct 2010 spot – Sep 2011We said: The most direct and visible effect of QE is likely to be on asset prices. At least some will rebalance their portfolios. This portfolio rebalancing could present a substantial upside to commodities. (Daily Notes 4th October 2010)Outcome: Oil prices then $81.4/bbl (WTI), $99/bbl in August 2011 -
ECB won’t raise rates in 2010
Consensus said: Markets began the year pricing in 110bps of tightening in 2010, by May markets were pricing 40bps tightening in the next 12 months.We said: There is not the slightest possibility of any sustained rise in inflation in the euro area in 2010, nor in 2010. ECB won’t raise rates in 2010. (Daily Notes 18th May 2010)Outcome: ECB left interest rates unchanged in 2010, hiked in April 2011 -
Huge upside potential in US equity markets
Consensus said: Merrill Lynch survey of portfolio managers revealed pessimism at “near record highs”We said: “Markets unlikely to get much cheaper, upside huge…With short-run interest rates at negligible levels, monetary reflation should drive investors into the stock market quite soon” (Daily Notes 3rd March 2009)Outcome: S&P rallies 58% from March to December, developed stock markets all grow strongly -
Double digit inflation to hit India
Consensus said: Goldman Sachs - "Inflation is on a downward trajectory and we expect it to continue to fall sharply going into next year." (December 2008)We said: “With grossly loose monetary policy and grotesquely loose fiscal policy, India now risks a repeat of the UK’s experience in the 1970s. India has an inflation problem” (Daily Notes 8th December 2008)Outcome: Indian CPI hit 10% in February 2009 and continued to rise to 16% by year end -
Bank of England will need more QE
Consensus said: Quantitative easing to be put ‘on hold’, policy to be tighterWe said: Bank of England to expand gilt purchases. M4 data open door for QE expansion (UK Bulletin 4th August 2009)Outcome: BoE boosts QE by £50bn on 8th August 2009 -
UK plc to recover quicker than expected
Consensus said: Fall of 3% real GDP in 2009, 0.5% expansion in 2010We said: Current consensus forecasts imply a contraction of 3% in real GDP this year, followed by a 0.5% expansion next. By contrast, our own projections remain less pessimistic than this. Not only has the UK business sector adjusted swiftly to the changing economic landscape but there is a very significant degree of monetary easing working its way through the economy (UK Bulletin 19th March 2009)Outcome: UK stock market bottomed in March 2009, but the economy did not move out of recession until the last quarter, as LSR predicted. -
US house prices set for long-term falls
Consensus said: Rate of decline to slow, lower interest rates to support house prices by mid-2009We said: Before the US economy can recover, household debt must return to manageable levels. Once there, US households are unlikely to go on another borrowing and spending spree.…it will take much more than a decade for prices to regain their former peak (Monthly Review 8th December 2008)Outcome: housing market still in doldrums by mid 2011, prices at best flat and down 20-30% from their peak (depending on the measure) -
Timing the US stock market recovery
Consensus said: Bearish view dominated private investor sentimentWe said: Our US equity recommendation was negative in August 2008, turned neutral in September and positive in October 2008. (Asset Allocation publications 1st August 2008, 1st October 2008, 5th November 2008)Outcome: S&P500 rose by 13% over period November 2008-October 2009 -
US monetary policy counterproductive - will raise inflation and slow growth
Consensus said: Fed needs to boost private sector credit growth to support the economyWe said: Private sector debt capacity is nil. Fed policy will reduce growth as inflation will eat into real incomes, and confidence worsening the economic downswing and missing the Fed’s growth goal (Monthly Review 28th May 2008)Outcome: Inflation is elevated; credit growth has been weak over past years -
Oil price driven too high by speculation - will peak and fall rapidly
Consensus said: Goldman Sachs predict oil price of $200pb, talk of "peak oil" dominatesWe said: The demand story favouring high oil prices is - cyclically - just that: a story. If and when the speculators decide the game is up, the game could be fun! (Daily Notes 9th May 2008)Outcome: WTI peaked at $147pb in July 2008 and fell to $35pb in Q1 2009 -
The bubble is about to burst
Consensus said: IMF and others see stable growth or ‘soft landing’We said: The May to June 2006 market crunch was a dress rehearsal for liquidity implosion. Make no mistake; the world is on the cusp. This looks and feels like a bubble. In the past, bubbles have always burst. (Monthly Review 19th January 2007)Outcome: The Global Financial Crisis -
Banking crisis imminent
Consensus said: Nothing. Wall Street entirely silent re: subprime, CDS and liquidity issuesWe said: Losses from the subprime mortgage markets will initiate the rebalancing of the Eurasian savings glut, at least for a while. Further losses due to the resulting global slowdown will turn risk seeking into risk avoidance. Both will drain the liquidity central banks inject and end the recent series of asset booms. (Monthly Review 29th March 2007)Outcome: Subprime mortgages and their derivatives trigger financial chaos -
Fed funds rate staying high
Consensus said: Rate cuts priced in for early 2007We said: Inflationary pressure means Fed will be unable to cut until Q3 2007 earliestOutcome: Fed funds rate stayed at 5.25% until October 2007 -
Bank of England will not cut rates and will hike next
Consensus said: August 2005 rate cut began an easing cycle.We said: Growth and inflation will be higher than the MPC expects, next rate move up (UK Bulletin 17th January 2006)Outcome: Rates flat at 4.5% until upward move in August 2006 -
Indian stock market offering value
Consensus said: May 2006 bloodbath the beginning of a major correctionWe said: Strong fundamentals to take markets higher after post-May fallsOutcome: Sensex up 56% to all-time peak by December 2006 -
UK house prices to continue steady growth
Consensus said: Prices overvalued and minimal growth at best in prospectWe said: House prices will grow steadily to reach 10% in 2006Outcome: Halifax price index rose 9.9% in the year -
Sell US bonds short-term
Consensus said: Buy bonds as shorts rushed for coverWe said: Treasury market is overbought. Bull phase temporarily over. (Daily Notes 31st October 2005)Outcome: 10-year Treasury yields backed up over 40bps -
UK house prices
Consensus said: house prices overvalued by up to 30%-40%.We said: Interest rates of 4¾% will not lead to a house price crash: expect a stable market. "A crash in the housing market remains a distant prospect, with conditions simply not in place for a drastic fall in house prices". (Quarterly Economic Forecast 2nd March 2005)Outcome: House price inflation slowed to 3% and started to accelerate. -
Euroland
Consensus said: Euroland growth remains weak, the ECB should cut interest ratesWe said: Euroland growth will be above-trend in 2004, slowing to trend in 2005. There will be no interest rate cuts. (Daily Notes 12th August 2004)Outcome: Euroland growth was 1.7% in 2004 (trend = 1.5%), but slowed in Q2 2005. Interest rates remain unchanged in the year to date. -
Korea
Consensus said: Korean household spending to recover strongly in 2004We said: Korean growth remains dependent on exports performance. Domestic demand, in particular household spending growth will not recover until 2005 and is unlikely to drive growth before 2006. (Daily Notes 1st September 2004)Outcome: Household spending average quarterly growth in 2004: 0.1% vs 2.3% for exports -
Asian Tigers
Consensus said: Strong growth for Asian tigers in 2004 and 2005We said: Once export growth cools in H2 2004 and following quarters, output growth will slow down abruptly. Indonesia performance will remain countercyclical to the rest of Asia (Daily Notes 5th May 2004)Outcome: Q1 GDP growth yoy halved in Singapore, Taiwan and Korea and slowed in Thailand. Indonesian growth accelerated from late 2004. -
Eurasian savings glut to drive US economy into hard landing
Consensus said: US debt capacity on housing unconstrainedWe said: Persistent Eurasian surpluses are crucial in the trashing of US business balance sheets with too much capacity and debt in 1998-2000; and trashing household balance sheets with excessive debt now - with a hard landing for the economy likely to result in 2005-2006. (Monthly Review 30th September 2004)Outcome: US slowdown in 2006 leads to sub-prime mortgage crisis -
UK housing market
Consensus said: A slowdown from the current inflation rate of 15%.We said: Current reading suggests that house price inflation could rise back up towards 20% again by the summer.Outcome: House price inflation rose to 19% in May.The momentum in the housing market has taken many, including the Bank of England, by surprise. -
US debt markets
Consensus said: US long rates moving higherWe said: US bonds set to rally.Outcome: The ten year US treasury rallied over 75 basis points -
Buy Japanese stocks, economy on the turn
Consensus said: Deflation and bad bank debts will hold down equitiesWe said: Japanese stocks are undervalued (Monthly Review – April 2003)Outcome: Nikkei rose 16.8% in 2003 -
Japan turnaround
Consensus said: Japan will continue to be crippled by deflation.The bad bank loan situation means Japanese stocks are not worth touching.We said: Japan is turning. Buy Japanese equities.Outcome: Nikkei has increased 50% since the lows of 2003. -
UK shares recovery
Consensus said: Markets extremely nervous and pessimistic.We said: Valuations are now fair, even cheap - expect a bounce-back.Outcome: FTAS rose 11% in 12 months. -
US Treasuries to outperform US stocks
Consensus said: US stock market to begin to rebound from two years of falls since 2000We said: Stocks to perform badly again. There is a powerful case for US Treasuries. Corporate bonds a better bet than stocks.Outcome: US Treasuries outperform corporate bonds, which outperform stocks -
China to become a global economic engine
Consensus said: China unlikely to take the global economy forwardWe said: Medium-term growth prospects for China very good. Emerging Eurasia to dominate world by 2025. (Monthly Review – November 2002)Outcome: In the next decade China becomes the most important country as % of global GDP growth -
Commodity Prices
Consensus said: Rising commodity prices unlikely to continueWe said: At least in the medium term China will fuel domestic demand growth, attempting to counter the global economic cycle. This will invariably have an upward effect on commodity prices (Daily Note 19th September 2002)Outcome: Commodity prices continued their ascent -
US stocks hamstrung after end of dot.com bubble
Consensus said: Stocks to recover from 2000 fallsWe said: Bonds, which are discounting 6% ongoing from mid-2002, should do well and stocks badly. (Monthly International Review - December 2001)Outcome: Bonds deliver superior returns -
Germany at risk of recession
Consensus said: German GDP to total 2% in 2001We said: A recession this year cannot be excluded. The budget deficit will almost certainly over shoot the 1.5% target. Beware a German recession. (Daily Note – 2nd May 2001)Outcome: German economic shrank H2 2001 and the budget deficit exceeded 1.5% target -
US bonds preferred
Consensus said: Stocks to do well after a fall this year.We said: Falling prices and a feeble US recovery means bonds will outperform stocks in 2002.Outcome: Bonds outperformed stocks in 2002. -
UK equities
Consensus said: UK stock market would rebound after the disastrous falls in 2000.We said: Equities would perform poorly for the second year in a row.Commercial property and cash represented the safest investment vehicles.Outcome: Another dire year for stock markets. FTSE-100 fell a further 16%. Commercial property was the best-performing asset class with cash a second. -
US economy
Consensus said: US to have a 'soft landing'. Corporate profits to rise gently.We said: Hard landing for US economy, sharp fall in corporate profits 2001-2002, shares to plummet.Outcome: US in recession from March, markets fall 22% in year to Q3 2001. -
Telco 3G licences
Consensus said: Telecommunications companies were right to pay enormous fees for 3G licences.We said: The Telcos were overvalued, crazy to pay such fees, and that they would run into financing difficulties in the future.Outcome: Continued decline in telecoms share prices in wake of bursting of high-tech bubble; significant problems at the major companies, including placing their enormous bond issues in the market. -
UK economy
Consensus said: UK recession in 1999.We said: 1.5% GDP growth in 1999 (the highest forecast out of 43).Outcome: 2.1% GDP growth. -
US inflation
Consensus said: 2.2% US inflation in one year's time.We said: 3% and rising.Outcome: 3% and rising. -
Japan
Consensus said: Fiscal policy can save Japan from recession.We said: Japanese fiscal policy has run its course.Outcome: Deepening recession. -
Asian markets
Consensus said: Emerging Asia will give good returns.We said: Asia will have a crisis.Outcome: The Asian crisis. -
US economy
Consensus said: US economy will slow.We said: The strong economy and bull market will continue.Outcome: Strong US growth. -
UK base rates
Consensus said: UK base rates will rise from 6% to 8%.We said: Base rates will rise only slightly, to 6.5%.Outcome: Base rates rose to 6.5% in 1995, then fell in 1996. Many Lombard Street Research clients made 250 ticks on short sterling. -
German economy
Consensus said: Germany will be the European locomotive.We said: German GDP will contract.Outcome: German GDP contracted. -
UK inflation
Consensus said: Rising inflation (to 4.2%).We said: Falling inflation (3.5%) and strong growth.Outcome: The five years from Q2 1992 saw above-trend growth, and inflation was lower in1997 than in late 1992. -
Japan
Consensus said: A model economy.We said: A decade of economic collapse.Outcome: Japan experienced a decade of economic collapse. -
UK economy
Consensus said: UK economy would experience growth.We said: Recession.Outcome: GDP was 1.7% lower in Q4 1990.
2013 Seminar Dates
June 19th 2013 - London
September 18th 2013 - London
November 6th 2013 - London
*Dates subject to revision, according to movements in markets.
