Macro Economic Research
06
Mar
2015
Global tailwind for China’s battered economy


• China’s growth slump and rapid capital flight suggest Beijing faces tough times  
• Latest easing aims to stabilise the economy, not fuel growth at any cost  
• Consumer-led US growth later in 2015 could...

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05
Mar
2015
March 2015


• The GLI declines slightly on the month, but growth prospects remain strong  
• Crucially, the dispersion of growth outturns is narrowing  
• LI signals for two euro area countries are above consensus   &...

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05
Mar
2015
The charmed life of Oz


• China’s slowdown and collapsing iron ore prices have hurt Australia ...  
• But export volumes have grown strongly despite only modest A$ depreciation  
• So in a savings-glut world Australia’s live...

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04
Mar
2015
South Africa – staying power missing


• Sustainability of recent improvement in the growth/inflation mix is tenuous  
• Additional fiscal stimulus is constrained by budgetary targets  
• Monetary policy efficacy remains compromised by structural impe...

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Investment Strategy
04
Mar
2015
US consumer boom after a soft patch

The recent oil slump will probably cause a soft patch for the US economy in the first half of this year. But looking beyond the initial negative consequences on oil producers and capex, the benefits for US consumers will dominate. We positi...

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25
Feb
2015
G10 themes after Greece/Yellen

To us, USD weakness after Yellen is no more than a reflection of positioning. Also, with near-term funding for Greece resolved, we see focus shifting to macro and policy drivers. Through the near-term positioning wash-out, we see a resumpti...

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23
Feb
2015
March 2015

Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s chief focus, has averaged just 1.7% over the last 20 years and during previous hiking cycles the Fed tended to hike rates way before the putative 2% target in core PCE inflation was hit (it was 1.26% in 1...

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18
Feb
2015
Gilt yields and GBP are capped

Gilt yields and sterling have backed up sharply in recent days with markets seeing signs of diminishing dovishness in Bank of England’s language. We think both markets and the Bank will be surprised by further (core) disinflation. Gil...

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