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• Policy efforts to reduce housing inventories have achieved some success
• But over-building in the old industrial regions remains serious
• Policymakers’ focus now shifts to bursting bubbles in top ti...
• Euro area growth moderates in Q2 due to ‘special factors’, yet remains solid
• Recovery led by Spain and Germany; France takes a breather; Italy is a laggard
• Expect above-trend growth to conti...
• Service sectors drove fair Q2 growth despite fall of industry and construction
• Domestic demand, not exports, the chief driver of growth YoY since 2014
• Prospective 1½-2% growth suggests ECB QE tap...
• Foreign central banks have a lot to answer for in the US
• Euro area piled into long-term debt securities but Japan is more complicated
• Emergency easing is not eternal and US inflation could surprise in 2...
• Volatility is low for now but political risks will increase in coming months
• A perfect storm of Italian, French and German key votes is brewing
• Unless it comes ashore early, EA stocks can outperform US in the near term...
• A possible shift of emphasis to fiscal stimulus is a major risk to core bonds
• It worsens the demand-supply balance even in the absence of inflation
• Joint monetary-fiscal stimulus can impair bonds’ recession-hedgi...
• US inflation is likely to accelerate after a period of stability
• The Fed will have to speed up the pace of policy tightening
• UST sell-off unlikely as valuations not as expensive as they appear
• Equity multiples a...
• Around 3.5% if we think only US growth and inflation matter as drivers
• Around 1% if we also factor in unconventional policy and demand for yield
• Hikes may not cause a big sell-off; surprise inflation and fiscal expansi...