Macro Economic Research
25
Jul
2016
EA liquidity – easier than it seems?


• Monetary and credit conditions continue to improve  
• Overall liquidity may be easier still  
• These indicators point to strong EA growth in the next 12 months  
Shweta Singh

LSR Daily Note
Download
22
Jul
2016
Japan Inc declines offer of more money


• Corporates are awash with cash and the system has no need for more liquidity  
• QE is losing efficacy, especially after NIRP  
• But helicopter money creates money without anyone demanding it  
F...

LSR Daily Note
Download
21
Jul
2016
Roman ruins

Italy is the main threat to the stability of the euro area. While an immediate financial crisis is unlikely – barring a huge policy blunder – the Italian economy has struggled to grow for more than two decades. With GDP unlikely...

LSR Macro Picture
Download
21
Jul
2016
China’s monetary myths


• Beijing’s credit binge has boosted narrow money, but not broad money  
• Second round effects from Beijing’s stimulus are minimal and diminishing  
• Credit supply is abundant but private demand rem...

LSR Daily Note
Download
Investment Strategy
20
Jul
2016
EM carry: the rally and the risks


• EM carry is unlikely to be vulnerable to isolated risks such as Turkish politics
• Global risk mitigation is a bigger driver, as both China and the dollar stabilise
• Inflation resurgence and sustained volatility...

LSR Macro Strategy
Download
15
Jul
2016
The Brexit risk premium


• The market reaction to Brexit has been remarkably composed
• But it would be wrong to dismiss the vote as a non-event
• European assets warrant a higher risk premium as a result
• The rebound in equities owes a lot to...

LSR Asset Allocation
Download
13
Jul
2016
Falling yields: losers & winners


• Stubborn term-premium declines have created both losers and winners
• Conventional wisdom on portfolio diversification may be challenged
• But yield advantage will attract flows till inflation resurfaces decisively
...

LSR Macro Strategy
Download
06
Jul
2016
Market oddities and stretched policy


• Central bank actions have contributed to many puzzling phenomena
• These include falling yields, even below zero, and stock-yields decorrelation
• Apart from NIRP, de-facto FX policy is a major source of these puzzles
...

LSR Macro Strategy
Download
LSR App LSR Services