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• India’s credit transmission channel remains weak
• Broad money growth sluggish
• Cash holdings surge
This is part of our China In Depth service, details of which can be found here.
• PPI positives for corporates and 2017 stabilization
• Government moves on corporate deleveraging
• How politics, social concerns and local...
• PBoC’s renminbi basket creeping higher despite sustained CNY weakness
• Maturing yen rally removes upside protection for both USD and RMB
• This complicates Beijing’s policy choices at a critica...
This is the first publication of our China In Depth service, see below for more detail. Policymakers must decide between two unpalatable options: allow debt to rise too fast or allow further RMB depreciation. The outcome will probably be...
• The inflationary impact of the 20% decline in GBP REER still lies ahead
• Gilt sell-off to moderate near term, but inflation premium to rise further
• Gilt yields remain low relative to plausible estimates of fair value #...
• The ECB will likely extend QE, giving bonds short-term support
• After that it will taper, causing yields to rise sharply
• We estimate ‘fair value’ yields to be 1-1½% higher than now
• We stay 0 on...
• EM parallels after joint sell-off in Gilts and sterling look misplaced
• Sustainability may look poor on C/A but not on net foreign asset position
• We suggest an options structure to position for near-term sterling topsid...
• Negative inflation surprises have been the main driver of lower yields
• The associated decline in macro volatility is filtering down to yield volatility
• Asymmetry in yield moves could persist till inflation surprises tu...