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• Monetary and credit conditions continue to improve
• Overall liquidity may be easier still
• These indicators point to strong EA growth in the next 12 months
• Corporates are awash with cash and the system has no need for more liquidity
• QE is losing efficacy, especially after NIRP
• But helicopter money creates money without anyone demanding it
Italy is the main threat to the stability of the euro area. While an immediate financial crisis is unlikely – barring a huge policy blunder – the Italian economy has struggled to grow for more than two decades. With GDP unlikely...
• Beijing’s credit binge has boosted narrow money, but not broad money
• Second round effects from Beijing’s stimulus are minimal and diminishing
• Credit supply is abundant but private demand rem...
• EM carry is unlikely to be vulnerable to isolated risks such as Turkish politics
• Global risk mitigation is a bigger driver, as both China and the dollar stabilise
• Inflation resurgence and sustained volatility...
• The market reaction to Brexit has been remarkably composed
• But it would be wrong to dismiss the vote as a non-event
• European assets warrant a higher risk premium as a result
• The rebound in equities owes a lot to...
• Stubborn term-premium declines have created both losers and winners
• Conventional wisdom on portfolio diversification may be challenged
• But yield advantage will attract flows till inflation resurfaces decisively
• Central bank actions have contributed to many puzzling phenomena
• These include falling yields, even below zero, and stock-yields decorrelation
• Apart from NIRP, de-facto FX policy is a major source of these puzzles