Macro Economic Research
18
Jan
2017
German/EA up + Brexit-Trump = stress


• Germany & EA both growing above-potential, inflation rising
• Less inordinate ECB stimulus to be announced this summer
• Rising euro vs. dollar later in 2017 to put pressure on Italy
• Germany to accept fiscal uni...

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18
Jan
2017
BoE getting hawkish – not before time


• Import prices an important determinant of UK inflation, have shot up  
• External price pressures add fuel to an already warming economy  
• The BoE cannot afford to wait and allow inflation to become entrenche...

LSR Daily Note
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17
Jan
2017
Preparing for Trump’s trade war

This publication is part of our China In Depth service. Click here for more detail.
• For over three decades, Donald Trump has consistently advocated import tariffs to reduce America’s trade deficit
• Xi Jinping, meanwhi...

TS Lombard China In Depth
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17
Jan
2017
When will the Fed hike again?


• US macro data justify faster Fed tightening even without Trump stimulus  
• Deflation risks gone and the latest USD rally doesn’t seem too destructive  
• Fed might wait until June, but markets too dovish...

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Investment Strategy
18
Jan
2017
GBP/USD: mispriced on both legs


• We recommend buying GBP/USD tactically to target 1.35 over 3 months
• May’s speech confirms a hard Brexit but alleviates “Brexit cliff” worries
• GBP is underpriced and USD overpriced relative to similar...

LSR Macro Strategy
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13
Jan
2017
Readying for trade war


• While still not our central case, the risk of a trade war has risen
• Trade frictions are likely and could disrupt markets
• We increase our vigilance but focus on the positives for now
• Global growth to remain solid...

LSR Asset Allocation
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11
Jan
2017
The hard Brexit premium in sterling


• The idea of a hard Brexit isn’t news; sterling is already semi-priced for it
• If Theresa May admits this is her plan, GBP downside won’t be enormous
• UK’s NFA position, growth and inflation don’t...

LSR Macro Strategy
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04
Jan
2017
Protectionism and carry amid good reflation


• Protectionism will be a key issue but select EM carry still looks attractive
• Reflation is the strategic story but divergences provide tactical RV themes
• Several of our ideas from last year survive the scrutiny of the n...

LSR Macro Strategy
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