Macro Economic Research
29
May
2015
Germany’s (unintended) benign rebalancing


• German household savings should shrink now baby boomers are retiring  
• The influx of job-seekers from east and south Europe is boosting cap-ex  
• China’s medium-term shift away from excessive metal-bas...

LSR Daily Note
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28
May
2015
Dollar lift-off – yuan as 3rd stage booster?


• After the crisis export-led savings gluttons failed to boost domestic demand  
• Japan relapsed into devaluation at end-2012, the euro zone from mid-2014  
• China has yet to beggar its neighbours – but i...

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27
May
2015
Australia’s housing market ‘supercycle’


• Home price appreciation continues unabated, driven by investor demand  
• Surging foreign investment in Australian real estate a mixed blessing for the economy  
• Effective regulation calls for speed limits on...

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26
May
2015
Japan’s portfolio rebalancing act


• Japan’s public pension funds have begun portfolio rebalancing to raise returns  
• Private pension funds have sat tight; other financials have turned to riskier assets  
• Foreigners’ interest in Ja...

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Investment Strategy
27
May
2015
Buy Japan tactically

While structural concerns about Abenomics remain, Japanese equities will continue to do well in the near term given scope for a further ramp-up of BoJ QE and large domestic asset-allocation shifts. JPY depreciation has helped profit margins...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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26
May
2015
June 2015

Up until the announcement of ECB QE, oil, eurozone 5y5y inflation swap rate and the 10y Bund co-moved closely – lower oil prices implied lower future inflation and a declining term premium. Oil prices bottomed around the same time as...

LSR Chartbook
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20
May
2015
Sell copper on China slowdown

China, the marginal consumer of 45% of world’s copper, is slowing rapidly. PBoC easing will at best prevent a disorderly unwind. Most industrial metals (including copper) have temporarily rebounded from oversold levels, but haven&rsqu...

LSR Portfolio Tactics
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15
May
2015
The Great Technical Unwind

Recent bond market gyrations have more to do with stretched positioning and poor liquidity than with investors reassessing the global outlook. The selloff has helped valuations reconnect with fundamentals: we stay neutral on G4 bonds and po...

LSR Asset Allocation
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