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• Households shrug off post-Brexit uncertainty but business spending weakening
• Buoyant consumers could cut a crucial link in the self-fulfilling downspiral
• Something more than a marginal fiscal stimulus i...
• EMs’ recent outperformance of DMs is likely to continue
• Sentiment, technical, macro and fundamental factors are supportive
• We have an 8% EM overweight in our Asset Allocation model portfolio
• On a trip to the US, European politics dominates investor concerns
• The Brexit vote changed little but has sounded the alert to mounting EU risks
• Donald Trump is a similar reminder of the fading veneer o...
• Fiscal stimulus is now the consensus solution to low growth
• Except, that is, among the people that decide: politicians
• Yields should rise in 2017, but not due to helicopter money (etc.)
• The Fed tightening cycle is a “dovish” one; the FOMC is unusually wary
• This key feature leaves very little prospective yield support for the dollar
• The best hope for dollar bulls is a global recession, not...
The unviability of open-ended QE by the BoJ and ECB has helped core yields back up recently, giving rise to fears of a major bond market sell-off as in 2013. However, there are important differences from the 2013 UST taper tantrum. Nominal...
• The scarcity problem implies tapering, but not necessarily a major tantrum
• Yield targets, demand-supply and strategic demand remain supportive
• But, eventually, it comes down to one decisive factor – global inflat...
• Volatility likely to rise more after being unusually low this summer
• Seasonality, valuations and political risks to keep markets on edge
• Fed to hike 3-4 times in a year, but USD upside still limited
• Govvies mini...